Bitcoin Price Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin price prediction game 2015

BETTING IS OFFICIALLY CLOSED! Click here for your data and analysis needs
I'm offering a reward of $25, in BTC, out of my own pocket, without buy-in, without a betting pool, to the person who posts in this thread, correctly predicting the following:
Whoever is closest to the real values will win. Both values have to be posted to be considered a valid prediction. Both values are weighted at 50% importance, meaning a bullseye for one and a complete miss for the other means somebody else will propably win. For reference I'll use the price of bitfinex.
Betting closes midnight Sunday 19th to Monday 20th, GMT
Eligible to win is everybody who meets the following criteria:
The winner will be announced in the first week of January 2016.
Everybody has 1 guess. If somebody should make multiple predictions, I will use the result furthest from the truth for evaluation.
Place your bets, gentlemen! You've got nothing to lose!
Use this link to be reminded of this post on 01-01-2016 via RemindMeBot
If anybody wants to analyse any data from this thread (which I'm planning to do, too), please don't publish your results until betting closes, so it doesn't skew any votes. Thank you.
UPDATE: imog is matching my reward, so the price for the winner is now at $50!
UPDATE 2: YRuafraid matches the award, too, so the prize for the winner is now $75!
UPDATE 3: azop offers a prize of 0.1 BTC to the 2nd place, so depending on what the price is doing until January, the 2nd prize might be bigger than the 1st :D
submitted by SpunkShrapnel to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Bitcoin price prediction game 2015 - Results and Awards

2015 came to a close, and here are the results of the Bitcoin price prediction game 2015:
First Place
Ender985
Guesses: $222.00 $555.00
Final Score: 112.7
Second Place
IronVape
Guesses: $245.14 $487.98
Final Score: 113.9
Third Place
iammagicmike
Guesses: $187.00 $466.00
Final Score: 116.2
Runner Ups
Place User Guess Low Guess High Score
04 noggin-scratcher $200,00 $450,00 129,3
05 aquentin $250,00 $500,00 137,0
05 null0pointer $250,00 $500,00 137,0
07 fruitlessbanana $219,00 $446,00 138,1
08 Yadeno $254,00 $496,00 169,1
09 lfgk $257,00 $487,00 202,7
10 BitcoinEuroTrader $222,00 $432,00 215,2
11 jasonmoola $260,00 $500,00 218,2
12 va243 $234,00 $432,00 251,5
13 cehmu $250,00 $450,00 252,1
14 imog $250,01 $449,99 252,2
15 FlacidPhil $225,00 $425,00 263,7
16 Globaller $264,00 $521,00 266,8
17 stbud $265,25 $505,50 267,8
18 2ndEntropy $255,00 $555,00 277,8
19 OttawaLitecoins $247,66 $569,44 290,0
20 twistedtango $260,00 $460,00 294,4
AWARDS
(I don't want to tip a possible inactive account, so you have to report here in order to claim your prize. If the prize does not get claimed in 7 days, I will contact the runner-ups one after another until I got rid of the money ;))
Ender985 , congratulations, get in here! You can choose tipbot or normal BTC-TX to recieve your prize.
IronVape , azop promised a second prize of 0.1 BTC for the second place, so you have to report in as well.
Also, paging imog and YRuafraid , both pledging to match my prize for $25 for first place, so the winner should recieve $75 if everybody honours their pledge!
Method to determine the winner
Highest price : $504 (bitfinex on Nov. 04) Lowest price : $211.98 (winkdex on Aug. 25, because bitfinex shit the bed that day)
Formula to determine the winner, lowest score wins:
PositiveValueOf{[PriceDiffToLowGuessIn$ * (PriceDiffToLowGuessInPercent / 5)]} + PositiveValueOf{[PriceDiffToHighGuessIn$ * (PriceDiffToHighGuessInPercent / 5)]} 
which translates to
ABS((PredictLow-ActualLow)*((((PredictLow-ActualLow)/ActualLow)*100)/5)) + ABS((PredictHigh-ActualHigh)*((((PredictHigh-ActualHigh)/ActualHigh)*100)/5)) 
Thanks again to imog and YRuafraid for pledging to match my reward for 1st place, and to azop for his prize of 0.1 BTC to the 2nd place, and thanks to all the players, it was a suprisingly close call between the first three in the end.
submitted by SpunkShrapnel to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

In 2014, 50 crypto experts were asked to predict the price of Bitcoin in 2015. Predictions are REALLY hard.

In 2014, 50 crypto experts were asked to predict the price of Bitcoin in 2015. Predictions are REALLY hard. submitted by 6maud to btc [link] [comments]

Predicting Bitcoin prices is REALLY hard. This is what 50 'crypto experts' expected prices to be in 2015 (Vitalik was one of the 50 experts)

Predicting Bitcoin prices is REALLY hard. This is what 50 'crypto experts' expected prices to be in 2015 (Vitalik was one of the 50 experts) submitted by ABitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Predicting Bitcoin prices is REALLY hard. This is what 50 'crypto experts' expected prices to be in 2015 (Vitalik was one of the 50 experts)

Predicting Bitcoin prices is REALLY hard. This is what 50 'crypto experts' expected prices to be in 2015 (Vitalik was one of the 50 experts) submitted by cryptoanalyticabot to cryptoall [link] [comments]

What is your Bitcoin price prediction for the end of 2015?

submitted by JustinTaylorCo to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

/r/bitcoin thread 1zh4gr ("What will the price of Bitcoin be on January 1st, 2015?") prediction threshold reached for post cftllr8. The predicted value of 1 BTC "some thing like $3200-$6400 by July" falls wildly short of estimate. This is good news for Bitcoin.

/bitcoin thread 1zh4gr ( submitted by Jackpot777 to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Price Prediction August 2014 Through March 2015

Bitcoin Price Prediction August 2014 Through March 2015 submitted by lyth0s to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

On March 3rd, 2014, Bitcoin supporters predicted what the price of their crypto would be worth on 1/1/2015...

On March 3rd, 2014, Bitcoin supporters predicted what the price of their crypto would be worth on 1/1/2015... submitted by Jackpot777 to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

Using crowd wisdom to predict Bitcoin's price in 2015

Using crowd wisdom to predict Bitcoin's price in 2015 submitted by BTC_Hamster to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

This guy predicted Bitcoins price pretty well in 2015

This guy predicted Bitcoins price pretty well in 2015 submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

This guy predicted Bitcoins price pretty well in 2015

submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAllTV [link] [comments]

1 More move over $408 in bitcoin before silver price spikes - jsnip4 on Web Bot's prediction (2015-11-05)

1 More move over $408 in bitcoin before silver price spikes - jsnip4 on Web Bot's prediction (2015-11-05) submitted by FMTY to Sep2015Event [link] [comments]

“It could be worth nothing, for all we know. Anything anyone says about the price of bitcoin in the future is pure speculation and like predicting the outcome of a slot machine.“ — Jackson Palmer, creator of dogecoin on bitcoin price in 2015

“It could be worth nothing, for all we know. Anything anyone says about the price of bitcoin in the future is pure speculation and like predicting the outcome of a slot machine.“ — Jackson Palmer, creator of dogecoin on bitcoin price in 2015 submitted by bitcoinik to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin price prediction game 2015 - Results and Awards /r/BitcoinMarkets

Bitcoin price prediction game 2015 - Results and Awards /BitcoinMarkets submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Press • [2015-12-18] Audio: Tuur Demeester – Bitcoin Price Predictions and Building Private Schools

submitted by btcforumbot to BtcForum [link] [comments]

My prediction: Price will reach $888 on 12/31/2015. With Gemini's volume surpass B10000 per day. /r/Bitcoin

My prediction: Price will reach $888 on 12/31/2015. With Gemini's volume surpass B10000 per day. /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Bitcoiners pull numbers out of asses to predict bitcoin's price in 2015.

submitted by sumanane to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

What is your price prediction for 2015? /r/Bitcoin

What is your price prediction for 2015? /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

How far we've come: "Predict the price of Bitcoin on 1 April 2015"

How far we've come: submitted by mstrmoo to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Opportunity - "Predict the price of Bitcoin on 1 April 2015 - win CGB's" on BitcoinTalk

submitted by papersheepdog to GotCrypto [link] [comments]

Is Bitcoin a leading indicator for stocks? (plot attached)

I read an article that claimed that Bitcoin tended to lead stocks market changes, but this was the usual tea leaf reading and chart-staring.
So I decided to compute the cross-correlation function of daily bitcoin percentage changes with SP500 daily percentage changes, from 2015 to today.
Plot here: https://i.imgur.com/zNHSzZK.png
The big white peak shows that bitcoin and stocks move in parallel on the same day (zero time lag).
But the broad bump in the red boxcar-smoothed correlation function suggests that bitcoin prices changes today are correlated with SP500 changes over the upcoming week.
However the SP500 seems to have little or no predictive power for Bitcoin, because there's no peak to the left of zero.
NOTE: the cross-correlation function is defined as
c(t) = ∫ 𝝙BTC(𝜏 )/BTC((𝜏 ) ⨉ 𝝙SP500(𝜏 +t)/SP500(𝜏 +t)d𝜏
so that if BTC(𝜏 ) tends move the same as SP500(𝜏+t) for many 𝜏 then c(t) should have a peak at t.
edit - a simple hypothesis: The zero-lag (white) correlation is obviously just normal correlated markets. The longer (red) correlation represents an internal lag time to the stock market in responding to events. For example a negative event causes a crash in both BTC and SP500. The Bitcoin falls fast, and stops, but SP500 reacts slowly and the sell-off takes a few days to complete.
As an analogy, an earthquake knocks down a building (BTC), and also sets off a huge landslide (SP500), but the big landslide tends to be followed by a series of smaller landslides. The building's fall "predicted" the multi-day landslide, but it's not a useful prediction, because you could have looked at the initial landslide and known that more landslides tend to follow.
edit 2: a technical way of saying this is that the SP500 might have a longer impulse response to external events than BTC.
submitted by VeryStableGenius to investing [link] [comments]

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