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ETHE & GBTC (Grayscale) Frequently Asked Questions

It is no doubt Grayscale’s booming popularity as a mainstream investment has caused a lot of community hullabaloo lately. As such, I felt it was worth making a FAQ regarding the topic. I’m looking to update this as needed and of course am open to suggestions / adding any questions.
The goal is simply to have a thread we can link to anyone with questions on Grayscale and its products. Instead of explaining the same thing 3 times a day, shoot those posters over to this thread. My hope is that these questions are answered in a fairly simple and easy to understand manner. I think as the sub grows it will be a nice reference point for newcomers.
Disclaimer: I do NOT work for Grayscale and as such am basing all these answers on information that can be found on their website / reports. (Grayscale’s official FAQ can be found here). I also do NOT have a finance degree, I do NOT have a Series 6 / 7 / 140-whatever, and I do NOT work with investment products for my day job. I have an accounting background and work within the finance world so I have the general ‘business’ knowledge to put it all together, but this is all info determined in my best faith effort as a layman. The point being is this --- it is possible I may explain something wrong or missed the technical terms, and if that occurs I am more than happy to update anything that can be proven incorrect
Everything below will be in reference to ETHE but will apply to GBTC as well. If those two segregate in any way, I will note that accordingly.
What is Grayscale? 
Grayscale is the company that created the ETHE product. Their website is https://grayscale.co/
What is ETHE? 
ETHE is essentially a stock that intends to loosely track the price of ETH. It does so by having each ETHE be backed by a specific amount of ETH that is held on chain. Initially, the newly minted ETHE can only be purchased by institutions and accredited investors directly from Grayscale. Once a year has passed (6 months for GBTC) it can then be listed on the OTCQX Best Market exchange for secondary trading. Once listed on OTCQX, anyone investor can purchase at this point. Additional information on ETHE can be found here.
So ETHE is an ETF? 
No. For technical reasons beyond my personal understandings it is not labeled an ETF. I know it all flows back to the “Securities Act Rule 144”, but due to my limited knowledge on SEC regulations I don’t want to misspeak past that. If anyone is more knowledgeable on the subject I am happy to input their answer here.
How long has ETHE existed? 
ETHE was formed 12/14/2017. GBTC was formed 9/25/2013.
How is ETHE created? 
The trust will issue shares to “Authorized Participants” in groups of 100 shares (called baskets). Authorized Participants are the only persons that may place orders to create these baskets and they do it on behalf of the investor.
Source: Creation and Redemption of Shares section on page 39 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Note – The way their reports word this makes it sound like there is an army of authorizers doing the dirty work, but in reality there is only one Authorized Participant. At this moment the “Genesis” company is the sole Authorized Participant. Genesis is owned by the “Digital Currency Group, Inc.” which is the parent company of Grayscale as well. (And to really go down the rabbit hole it looks like DCG is the parent company of CoinDesk and is “backing 150+ companies across 30 countries, including Coinbase, Ripple, and Chainalysis.”)
Source: Digital Currency Group, Inc. informational section on page 77 of the “Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) Form 10-K (2019)” – Located Here
Source: Barry E. Silbert informational section on page 75 of the “Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) Form 10-K (2019)” – Located Here
How does Grayscale acquire the ETH to collateralize the ETHE product? 
An Investor may acquire ETHE by paying in cash or exchanging ETH already owned.
Source: Creation and Redemption of Shares section on page 40 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Where does Grayscale store their ETH? Does it have a specific wallet address we can follow? 
ETH is stored with Coinbase Custody Trust Company, LLC. I am unaware of any specific address or set of addresses that can be used to verify the ETH is actually there.
As an aside - I would actually love to see if anyone knows more about this as it’s something that’s sort of peaked my interest after being asked about it… I find it doubtful we can find that however.
Source: Part C. Business Information, Item 8, subsection A. on page 16 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Can ETHE be redeemed for ETH? 
No, currently there is no way to give your shares of ETHE back to Grayscale to receive ETH back. The only method of getting back into ETH would be to sell your ETHE to someone else and then use those proceeds to buy ETH yourself.
Source: Redemption Procedures on page 41 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Why are they not redeeming shares? 
I think the report summarizes it best:
Redemptions of Shares are currently not permitted and the Trust is unable to redeem Shares. Subject to receipt of regulatory approval from the SEC and approval by the Sponsor in its sole discretion, the Trust may in the future operate a redemption program. Because the Trust does not believe that the SEC would, at this time, entertain an application for the waiver of rules needed in order to operate an ongoing redemption program, the Trust currently has no intention of seeking regulatory approval from the SEC to operate an ongoing redemption program.
Source: Redemption Procedures on page 41 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
What is the fee structure? 
ETHE has an annual fee of 2.5%. GBTC has an annual fee of 2.0%. Fees are paid by selling the underlying ETH / BTC collateralizing the asset.
Source: ETHE’s informational page on Grayscale’s website - Located Here
Source: Description of Trust on page 31 & 32 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
What is the ratio of ETH to ETHE? 
At the time of posting (6/19/2020) each ETHE share is backed by .09391605 ETH. Each share of GBTC is backed by .00096038 BTC.
ETHE & GBTC’s specific information page on Grayscale’s website updates the ratio daily – Located Here
For a full historical look at this ratio, it can be found on the Grayscale home page on the upper right side if you go to Tax Documents > 2019 Tax Documents > Grayscale Ethereum Trust 2019 Tax Letter.
Why is the ratio not 1:1? Why is it always decreasing? 
While I cannot say for certain why the initial distribution was not a 1:1 backing, it is more than likely to keep the price down and allow more investors a chance to purchase ETHE / GBTC.
As noted above, fees are paid by selling off the ETH collateralizing ETHE. So this number will always be trending downward as time goes on.
Source: Description of Trust on page 32 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
I keep hearing about how this is locked supply… explain? 
As noted above, there is currently no redemption program for converting your ETHE back into ETH. This means that once an ETHE is issued, it will remain in circulation until a redemption program is formed --- something that doesn’t seem to be too urgent for the SEC or Grayscale at the moment. Tiny amounts will naturally be removed due to fees, but the bulk of the asset is in there for good.
Knowing that ETHE cannot be taken back and destroyed at this time, the ETH collateralizing it will not be removed from the wallet for the foreseeable future. While it is not fully locked in the sense of say a totally lost key, it is not coming out any time soon.
Per their annual statement:
The Trust’s ETH will be transferred out of the ETH Account only in the following circumstances: (i) transferred to pay the Sponsor’s Fee or any Additional Trust Expenses, (ii) distributed in connection with the redemption of Baskets (subject to the Trust’s obtaining regulatory approval from the SEC to operate an ongoing redemption program and the consent of the Sponsor), (iii) sold on an as-needed basis to pay Additional Trust Expenses or (iv) sold on behalf of the Trust in the event the Trust terminates and liquidates its assets or as otherwise required by law or regulation.
Source: Description of Trust on page 31 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Grayscale now owns a huge chunk of both ETH and BTC’s supply… should we be worried about manipulation, a sell off to crash the market crash, a staking cartel? 
First, it’s important to remember Grayscale is a lot more akin to an exchange then say an investment firm. Grayscale is working on behalf of its investors to create this product for investor control. Grayscale doesn’t ‘control’ the ETH it holds any more then Coinbase ‘controls’ the ETH in its hot wallet. (Note: There are likely some varying levels of control, but specific to this topic Grayscale cannot simply sell [legally, at least] the ETH by their own decision in the same manner Coinbase wouldn't be able to either.)
That said, there shouldn’t be any worry in the short to medium time-frame. As noted above, Grayscale can’t really remove ETH other than for fees or termination of the product. At 2.5% a year, fees are noise in terms of volume. Grayscale seems to be the fastest growing product in the crypto space at the moment and termination of the product seems unlikely.
IF redemptions were to happen tomorrow, it’s extremely unlikely we would see a mass exodus out of the product to redeem for ETH. And even if there was incentive to get back to ETH, the premium makes it so that it would be much more cost effective to just sell your ETHE on the secondary market and buy ETH yourself. Remember, any redemption is up to the investors and NOT something Grayscale has direct control over.
Yes, but what about [insert criminal act here]… 
Alright, yes. Technically nothing is stopping Grayscale from selling all the ETH / BTC and running off to the Bahamas (Hawaii?). BUT there is no real reason for them to do so. Barry is an extremely public figure and it won’t be easy for him to get away with that. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust creates SEC reports weekly / bi-weekly and I’m sure given the sentiment towards crypto is being watched carefully. Plus, Grayscale is making tons of consistent revenue and thus has little to no incentive to give that up for a quick buck.
That’s a lot of ‘happy little feels’ Bob, is there even an independent audit or is this Tether 2.0? 
Actually yes, an independent auditor report can be found in their annual reports. It is clearly aimed more towards the financial side and I doubt the auditors are crypto savants, but it is at least one extra set of eyes. Auditors are Friedman LLP – Auditor since 2015.
Source: Independent Auditor Report starting on page 116 (of the PDF itself) of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
As mentioned by user TheCrpytosAndBloods (In Comments Below), a fun fact:
The company’s auditors Friedman LLP were also coincidentally TetheBitfinex’s auditors until They controversially parted ways in 2018 when the Tether controversy was at its height. I am not suggesting for one moment that there is anything shady about DCG - I just find it interesting it’s the same auditor.
“Grayscale sounds kind of lame” / “Not your keys not your crypto!” / “Why is anyone buying this, it sounds like a scam?” 
Welp, for starters this honestly is not really a product aimed at the people likely to be reading this post. To each their own, but do remember just because something provides no value to you doesn’t mean it can’t provide value to someone else. That said some of the advertised benefits are as follows:
So for example, I can set up an IRA at a brokerage account that has $0 trading fees. Then I can trade GBTC and ETHE all day without having to worry about tracking my taxes. All with the relative safety something like E-Trade provides over Binance.
As for how it benefits the everyday ETH holder? I think the supply lock is a positive. I also think this product exposes the Ethereum ecosystem to people who otherwise wouldn’t know about it.
Why is there a premium? Why is ETHE’s premium so insanely high compared to GBTC’s premium? 
There are a handful of theories of why a premium exists at all, some even mentioned in the annual report. The short list is as follows:
Why is ETHE’s so much higher the GBTC’s? Again, a few thoughts:

Are there any other differences between ETHE and GBTC? 
I touched on a few of the smaller differences, but one of the more interesting changes is GBTC is now a “SEC reporting company” as of January 2020. Which again goes beyond my scope of knowledge so I won’t comment on it too much… but the net result is GBTC is now putting out weekly / bi-weekly 8-K’s and annual 10-K’s. This means you can track GBTC that much easier at the moment as well as there is an extra layer of validity to the product IMO.
I’m looking for some statistics on ETHE… such as who is buying, how much is bought, etc? 
There is a great Q1 2020 report I recommend you give a read that has a lot of cool graphs and data on the product. It’s a little GBTC centric, but there is some ETHE data as well. It can be found here hidden within the 8-K filings.Q1 2020 is the 4/16/2020 8-K filing.
For those more into a GAAP style report see the 2019 annual 10-K of the same location.
Is Grayscale only just for BTC and ETH? 
No, there are other products as well. In terms of a secondary market product, ETCG is the Ethereum Classic version of ETHE. Fun Fact – ETCG was actually put out to the secondary market first. It also has a 3% fee tied to it where 1% of it goes to some type of ETC development fund.
In terms of institutional and accredited investors, there are a few ‘fan favorites’ such as Bitcoin Cash, Litcoin, Stellar, XRP, and Zcash. Something called Horizion (Backed by ZEN I guess? Idk to be honest what that is…). And a diversified Mutual Fund type fund that has a little bit of all of those. None of these products are available on the secondary market.
Are there alternatives to Grayscale? 
I know they exist, but I don’t follow them. I’ll leave this as a “to be edited” section and will add as others comment on what they know.
Per user Over-analyser (in comments below):
Coinshares (Formerly XBT provider) are the only similar product I know of. BTC, ETH, XRP and LTC as Exchange Traded Notes (ETN).
It looks like they are fully backed with the underlying crypto (no premium).
https://coinshares.com/etps/xbt-provideinvestor-resources/daily-hedging-position
Denominated in SEK and EUR. Certainly available in some UK pensions (SIPP).
As asked by pegcity - Okay so I was under the impression you can just give them your own ETH and get ETHE, but do you get 11 ETHE per ETH or do you get the market value of ETH in USD worth of ETHE? 
I have always understood that the ETHE issued directly through Grayscale is issued without the premium. As in, if I were to trade 1 ETH for ETHE I would get 11, not say only 2 or 3 because the secondary market premium is so high. And if I were paying cash only I would be paying the price to buy 1 ETH to get my 11 ETHE. Per page 39 of their annual statement, it reads as follows:
The Trust will issue Shares to Authorized Participants from time to time, but only in one or more Baskets (with a Basket being a block of 100 Shares). The Trust will not issue fractions of a Basket. The creation (and, should the Trust commence a redemption program, redemption) of Baskets will be made only in exchange for the delivery to the Trust, or the distribution by the Trust, of the number of whole and fractional ETH represented by each Basket being created (or, should the Trust commence a redemption program, redeemed), which is determined by dividing (x) the number of ETH owned by the Trust at 4:00 p.m., New York time, on the trade date of a creation or redemption order, after deducting the number of ETH representing the U.S. dollar value of accrued but unpaid fees and expenses of the Trust (converted using the ETH Index Price at such time, and carried to the eighth decimal place), by (y) the number of Shares outstanding at such time (with the quotient so obtained calculated to one one-hundred-millionth of one ETH (i.e., carried to the eighth decimal place)), and multiplying such quotient by 100 (the “Basket ETH Amount”). All questions as to the calculation of the Basket ETH Amount will be conclusively determined by the Sponsor and will be final and binding on all persons interested in the Trust. The Basket ETH Amount multiplied by the number of Baskets being created or redeemed is the “Total Basket ETH Amount.” The number of ETH represented by a Share will gradually decrease over time as the Trust’s ETH are used to pay the Trust’s expenses. Each Share represented approximately 0.0950 ETH and 0.0974 ETH as of December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively.

submitted by Bob-Rossi to ethfinance [link] [comments]

A new whitepaper analysing the performance and scalability of the Streamr pub/sub messaging Network is now available. Take a look at some of the fascinating key results in this introductory blog

A new whitepaper analysing the performance and scalability of the Streamr pub/sub messaging Network is now available. Take a look at some of the fascinating key results in this introductory blog

Streamr Network: Performance and Scalability Whitepaper


https://preview.redd.it/bstqyn43x4j51.png?width=2600&format=png&auto=webp&s=81683ca6303ab84ab898c096345464111d674ee5
The Corea milestone of the Streamr Network went live in late 2019. Since then a few people in the team have been working on an academic whitepaper to describe its design principles, position it with respect to prior art, and prove certain properties it has. The paper is now ready, and it has been submitted to the IEEE Access journal for peer review. It is also now published on the new Papers section on the project website. In this blog, I’ll introduce the paper and explain its key results. All the figures presented in this post are from the paper.
The reasons for doing this research and writing this paper were simple: many prospective users of the Network, especially more serious ones such as enterprises, ask questions like ‘how does it scale?’, ‘why does it scale?’, ‘what is the latency in the network?’, and ‘how much bandwidth is consumed?’. While some answers could be provided before, the Network in its currently deployed form is still small-scale and can’t really show a track record of scalability for example, so there was clearly a need to produce some in-depth material about the structure of the Network and its performance at large, global scale. The paper answers these questions.
Another reason is that decentralized peer-to-peer networks have experienced a new renaissance due to the rise in blockchain networks. Peer-to-peer pub/sub networks were a hot research topic in the early 2000s, but not many real-world implementations were ever created. Today, most blockchain networks use methods from that era under the hood to disseminate block headers, transactions, and other events important for them to function. Other megatrends like IoT and social media are also creating demand for new kinds of scalable message transport layers.

The latency vs. bandwidth tradeoff

The current Streamr Network uses regular random graphs as stream topologies. ‘Regular’ here means that nodes connect to a fixed number of other nodes that publish or subscribe to the same stream, and ‘random’ means that those nodes are selected randomly.
Random connections can of course mean that absurd routes get formed occasionally, for example a data point might travel from Germany to France via the US. But random graphs have been studied extensively in the academic literature, and their properties are not nearly as bad as the above example sounds — such graphs are actually quite good! Data always takes multiple routes in the network, and only the fastest route counts. The less-than-optimal routes are there for redundancy, and redundancy is good, because it improves security and churn tolerance.
There is an important parameter called node degree, which is the fixed number of nodes to which each node in a topology connects. A higher node degree means more duplication and thus more bandwidth consumption for each node, but it also means that fast routes are more likely to form. It’s a tradeoff; better latency can be traded for worse bandwidth consumption. In the following section, we’ll go deeper into analyzing this relationship.

Network diameter scales logarithmically

One useful metric to estimate the behavior of latency is the network diameter, which is the number of hops on the shortest path between the most distant pair of nodes in the network (i.e. the “longest shortest path”. The below plot shows how the network diameter behaves depending on node degree and number of nodes.

Network diameter
We can see that the network diameter increases logarithmically (very slowly), and a higher node degree ‘flattens the curve’. This is a property of random regular graphs, and this is very good — growing from 10,000 nodes to 100,000 nodes only increases the diameter by a few hops! To analyse the effect of the node degree further, we can plot the maximum network diameter using various node degrees:
Network diameter in network of 100 000 nodes
We can see that there are diminishing returns for increasing the node degree. On the other hand, the penalty (number of duplicates, i.e. bandwidth consumption), increases linearly with node degree:

Number of duplicates received by the non-publisher nodes
In the Streamr Network, each stream forms its own separate overlay network and can even have a custom node degree. This allows the owner of the stream to configure their preferred latency/bandwidth balance (imagine such a slider control in the Streamr Core UI). However, finding a good default value is important. From this analysis, we can conclude that:
  • The logarithmic behavior of network diameter leads us to hope that latency might behave logarithmically too, but since the number of hops is not the same as latency (in milliseconds), the scalability needs to be confirmed in the real world (see next section).
  • A node degree of 4 yields good latency/bandwidth balance, and we have selected this as the default value in the Streamr Network. This value is also used in all the real-world experiments described in the next section.
It’s worth noting that in such a network, the bandwidth requirement for publishers is determined by the node degree and not the number of subscribers. With a node degree 4 and a million subscribers, the publisher only uploads 4 copies of a data point, and the million subscribing nodes share the work of distributing the message among themselves. In contrast, a centralized data broker would need to push out a million copies.

Latency scales logarithmically

To see if actual latency scales logarithmically in real-world conditions, we ran large numbers of nodes in 16 different Amazon AWS data centers around the world. We ran experiments with network sizes between 32 to 2048 nodes. Each node published messages to the network, and we measured how long it took for the other nodes to get the message. The experiment was repeated 10 times for each network size.
The below image displays one of the key results of the paper. It shows a CDF (cumulative distribution function) of the measured latencies across all experiments. The y-axis runs from 0 to 1, i.e. 0% to 100%.
CDF of message propagation delay
From this graph we can easily read things like: in a 32 nodes network (blue line), 50% of message deliveries happened within 150 ms globally, and all messages were delivered in around 250 ms. In the largest network of 2048 nodes (pink line), 99% of deliveries happened within 362 ms globally.
To put these results in context, PubNub, a centralized message brokering service, promises to deliver messages within 250 ms — and that’s a centralized service! Decentralization comes with unquestionable benefits (no vendor lock-in, no trust required, network effects, etc.), but if such protocols are inferior in terms of performance or cost, they won’t get adopted. It’s pretty safe to say that the Streamr Network is on par with centralized services even when it comes to latency, which is usually the Achilles’ heel of P2P networks (think of how slow blockchains are!). And the Network will only get better with time.
Then we tackled the big question: does the latency behave logarithmically?
Mean message propagation delay in Amazon experiments
Above, the thick line is the average latency for each network size. From the graph, we can see that the latency grows logarithmically as the network size increases, which means excellent scalability.
The shaded area shows the difference between the best and worst average latencies in each repeat. Here we can see the element of chance at play; due to the randomness in which nodes become neighbours, some topologies are faster than others. Given enough repeats, some near-optimal topologies can be found. The difference between average topologies and the best topologies gives us a glimpse of how much room for optimisation there is, i.e. with a smarter-than-random topology construction, how much improvement is possible (while still staying in the realm of regular graphs)? Out of the observed topologies, the difference between the average and the best observed topology is between 5–13%, so not that much. Other subclasses of graphs, such as irregular graphs, trees, and so on, can of course unlock more room for improvement, but they are different beasts and come with their own disadvantages too.
It’s also worth asking: how much worse is the measured latency compared to the fastest possible latency, i.e. that of a direct connection? While having direct connections between a publisher and subscribers is definitely not scalable, secure, or often even feasible due to firewalls, NATs and such, it’s still worth asking what the latency penalty of peer-to-peer is.

Relative delay penalty in Amazon experiments
As you can see, this plot has the same shape as the previous one, but the y-axis is different. Here, we are showing the relative delay penalty (RDP). It’s the latency in the peer-to-peer network (shown in the previous plot), divided by the latency of a direct connection measured with the ping tool. So a direct connection equals an RDP value of 1, and the measured RDP in the peer-to-peer network is roughly between 2 and 3 in the observed topologies. It increases logarithmically with network size, just like absolute latency.
Again, given that latency is the Achilles’ heel of decentralized systems, that’s not bad at all. It shows that such a network delivers acceptable performance for the vast majority of use cases, only excluding the most latency-sensitive ones, such as online gaming or arbitrage trading. For most other use cases, it doesn’t matter whether it takes 25 or 75 milliseconds to deliver a data point.

Latency is predictable

It’s useful for a messaging system to have consistent and predictable latency. Imagine for example a smart traffic system, where cars can alert each other about dangers on the road. It would be pretty bad if, even minutes after publishing it, some cars still haven’t received the warning. However, such delays easily occur in peer-to-peer networks. Everyone in the crypto space has seen first-hand how plenty of Bitcoin or Ethereum nodes lag even minutes behind the latest chain state.
So we wanted to see whether it would be possible to estimate the latencies in the peer-to-peer network if the topology and the latencies between connected pairs of nodes are known. We applied Dijkstra’s algorithm to compute estimates for average latencies from the input topology data, and compared the estimates to the actual measured average latencies:
Mean message propagation delay in Amazon experiments
We can see that, at least in these experiments, the estimates seemed to provide a lower bound for the actual values, and the average estimation error was 3.5%. The measured value is higher than the estimated one because the estimation only considers network delays, while in reality there is also a little bit of a processing delay at each node.

Conclusion

The research has shown that the Streamr Network can be expected to deliver messages in roughly 150–350 milliseconds worldwide, even at a large scale with thousands of nodes subscribing to a stream. This is on par with centralized message brokers today, showing that the decentralized and peer-to-peer approach is a viable alternative for all but the most latency-sensitive applications.
It’s thrilling to think that by accepting a latency only 2–3 times longer than the latency of an unscalable and insecure direct connecion, applications can interconnect over an open fabric with global scalability, no single point of failure, no vendor lock-in, and no need to trust anyone — all that becomes available out of the box.
In the real-time data space, there are plenty of other aspects to explore, which we didn’t cover in this paper. For example, we did not measure throughput characteristics of network topologies. Different streams are independent, so clearly there’s scalability in the number of streams, and heavy streams can be partitioned, allowing each stream to scale too. Throughput is mainly limited, therefore, by the hardware and network connection used by the network nodes involved in a topology. Measuring the maximum throughput would basically be measuring the hardware as well as the performance of our implemented code. While interesting, this is not a high priority research target at this point in time. And thanks to the redundancy in the network, individual slow nodes do not slow down the whole topology; the data will arrive via faster nodes instead.
Also out of scope for this paper is analysing the costs of running such a network, including the OPEX for publishers and node operators. This is a topic of ongoing research, which we’re currently doing as part of designing the token incentive mechanisms of the Streamr Network, due to be implemented in a later milestone.
I hope that this blog has provided some insight into the fascinating results the team uncovered during this research. For a more in-depth look at the context of this work, and more detail about the research, we invite you to read the full paper.
If you have an interest in network performance and scalability from a developer or enterprise perspective, we will be hosting a talk about this research in the coming weeks, so keep an eye out for more details on the Streamr social media channels. In the meantime, feedback and comments are welcome. Please add a comment to this Reddit thread or email [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]).
Originally published by. Henri at blog.streamr.network on August 24, 2020.
submitted by thamilton5 to streamr [link] [comments]

Hoo Labs Launches Oikos(OKS) Token Sale

Hoo Labs Launches Oikos(OKS) Token Sale
Dear Hoo users,
Hoo Labs is launching Oikos(OKS) token sale on June 12 to June 14. In order to thank our users for their support, Hoo decided to have benefits for our users. Participants who successfully joined in the first round up to 1200 USDT or the second round up to 800 USDT, are eligible to participate in the Thanksgiving benefit third rounds of enjoying lower prices on Hoo.

Rules:
First Round: June 12
Amount: 270,000 USDT (10 million OKS)
Mode: First come, first served ( Support 1000 USDT to qualify for the third round)
Reference price: 1 OKS = 0.027 USDT
Time: 10:00 on June 12, 2020 to 24:00 on June 12, 2020 (UTC+8)
Accepted coin: USDT (wallet account)
Minimum invest: 100 USDT
Maximum invest: 10,000 USDT
Requirements: complete KYC, VIP 1 or above
Second Round: June 13
Amount:150,000 USDT (5 million OKS)
Mode: First come, first served ( Support 800 USDT to qualify for the third round)
Reference price: 1 OKS = 0.03 USDT
Time: 10:00 on June 13, 2020 to 24:00 on June 13, 2020 (UTC+8)
Accepted coin: USDT (wallet account)
Minimum invest: 100 USDT
Maximum invest: 10,000 USDT
Requirements: complete KYC, VIP 1 or above
Third Round: June 14
Amount: 125,000 USDT (5 million OKS)
Mode: Super Invest
Reference price: 1 OKS = 0.025 USDT
Time: 10:00 on June 14, 2020 to 24:00 on June 14, 2020 (UTC+8)
Accepted coin: USDT (wallet account)
Minimum invest: 100 USDT
Maximum invest: 5,000 USDT
Requirements: complete KYC and VIP 1 or above, and successful participation in the first round up to 1200 USDT or the second round up to 800 USDT.
Distribution & Trading: OKS tokens will be distributed by June 17, and trading will be enabled after a month once the token sale completed. Please stay tuned to Hoo official announcement for any updates.
Introduction to Oikos:
Decentralised Synthetic Assets, Oikos is a Tron based synthetic asset platform that provides on-chain exposure to fiat currencies, commodities, stocks, and indices. Synthetic assets (Synths) are backed by Oikos Network Tokens (OKS) locked into a smart contract as collateral. Synths track the prices of various assets, allowing crypto-native and unbanked users to trade P2C (peer-to-contract) on Oikos Exchange without liquidity limitations.
Trustless Token Exchange, Oikos Swap is a Tron port of Uniswap: a trustless decentralized exchange that allows users to trade any Tron-based token without any deposits or withdrawals to a centralized order book. Better yet, Oikos Swap liquidity pools have little to no slippage for the vast majority of transactions. Anyone can contribute by adding or removing liquidity to gain commissions in the form of exchange fees as well as rewards paid in OKS token.
The Team
Manuel Corona
Co-Founder & Marketing Expert
Manuel had an early fascination with technology that led him to work with many talented people and co-found several technology projects. He is a skilled marketer, IT expert and his interests span from programming to distributed system design and of course, cryptocurrencies. His early vision for Oikos was determinant and he led the project from the idea phase to deployment.
Albert Rodriguez
Co-Founder & Mad Scientist
Albert is an early Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tron adopter. His fascination for DeFi lead him to come up with the idea for Oikos and everything started from there. He is also a very talented developer with experience in several programming languages. His daily routine consists in drinking a lot of coffee, writing code and thinking of new possible directions for Oikos.
Kevin Holder
Software Engineer
Kevin is a talented software engineer that has been through the whole technology stack during the course of his career, from cryptography to front end web development. Before Oikos, he spent his time developing smart contracts, studying decentralized applications and contributing to open source. His programming languages of choice are, in no particular order, Solidity, JavaScript and Rust.
Technical Information
Arbitrage: OKS STAKER creates the debt by exploiting Synths, so if the Synths exchange rate system falls, they can now profit by buying back sUSD below par and burning sUSD to reduce debt. Because the Oikos system always puts a dollar value on $1.00.
sTRX Liquidity Pool: Liquidity providers are providing depth to the sTRX/TRX Oikos Swap liquidity pool. The deeper this pool, the less slippage traders pay when entering or exiting the system. Liquidity providers do not need to stake or hold OKS, only TRX and sTRX. To receive rewards they must stake their Oikos Swap LP tokens into a purpose-built smart contract.
OKS Auctions: Oikos is currently experimenting with a new mechanism in conjunction with dFusion (from Gnosis) where discounted OKS will be sold in TRX auctions and then used to purchase Synths under pegged.
Token Information
Name: Oikos Network Token (OKS)
Total supply: 100,000,000 OKS
Public Sale:0.025USD (20–31 May 2020)

https://preview.redd.it/wv5o6u8rq9451.png?width=601&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbc3cd6a39fcd09ed6a1f5b63b37c8d73be6bc3a

OKS Staking Rewards
Exchange fees are generated whenever a user exchanges one synthetic asset (Synth) for another through Oikos.Exchange. Fees are typically between 10–100 bps (0.1%-1%), though usually 30 bps, and when generated are sent to the fee pool, where it is available to be claimed proportionally by OKS stakers each week.The OKS reward is generated through the inflationary monetary policy implemented in March 2018. From March 2019 to August 2023, the total supply of OKS will increase from 100,000,000 to 260,263,816 with a weekly decay rate of 1.25% (from December 2019). Mortgagors can trade fees to receive incentives. The incentive that OKS receives through inflationary supply will gradually diminish until September 2023, when OKS will become a 2.5% Year-end inflation rate.
Mining, Burning, Mortgage Ratio
The above mechanism ensures that OKS mortgagees have an incentive to keep their collateral ratios (C-Ratio) at optimal ratios (currently at 800%). This ensures that Synths has sufficient collateral support to soak up large price shocks. If the value of OKS or Synths fluctuates, each staker’s C ratio will fluctuate. If the ratio is below 800% (despite the small allowance for minor fluctuations) then they will not be able to charges before the ratio recover. They can adjust their percentage if Synths are above 800% and burn Synths if their percentage are below 800%.
Roadmap
Q2 2020
Alpha launch, token distribution event, official Tron main-net launch.
Q3 2020
Official audit, listing on exchanges, launch of additional Synths.
Q4 2020
Launch of mobile-ready user interface, port TheGraph to Tron network.
Q1 2021
Integrate ChainLink technology, research on decentralized governance models, alternative liquidation mechanism.
Q2 2021
Support for more complex trading instruments. Transition to a fully decentralized governance model, use of TRX as collateral for Synth issuance.
Social Media:
Website: https://oikos.cash/
Whitepaper: https://docs.oikos.cash/litepaper-zh.pdf
Telegram: https://t.me/oikoscash
Twitter: https://twitter.com/oikos_cash
Github: https://github.com/orgs/oikos-cash/
Risk Alert: Any digital assets investment is risky. Please evaluate your risk tolerance before getting involved. Your support on Hoo is highly appreciated.
Hoo Team
June 10, 2020
submitted by Hooexchange to u/Hooexchange [link] [comments]

Bitquery formerly bloxy.info, unveils a set of data tools including open source data widgets supported by Binance X. Expands API data support for more than 20 blockchains.

New York: Bitquery, LLC. (formerly bloxy.info), today unveils its new branding along with a series of new developments. This milestone is a major move for Bitquery on its mission to extent its blockchain data coverage solutions in an array of different data verticals.
This news comes in the wake of many recent initiatives and accomplishments of the company, including:
As of today the company supports through its unified APIs the following blockchains: Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV, Bitcoin Omni Layer, Litecoin, Dash, Doge, ZCash, Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, Tron, EOS, Binance, Tezos, Repple, Stellar, Cardano, Cosmos, Celo.
About Bitquery, LLC.: Bitquery is an API-first product company dedicated to power and solve blockchain data problems using the ground truth of on-chain data. Supports different data verticals like Crypto Surveillance with its unique Coinpath® technology, Arbitrage Trading on DEXs, Smart Contracts and more. Bitquery is powering known Blockchain Projects & Service Providers, Financial Institutions, Crypto Exchanges & Developers.
submitted by bitquery to u/bitquery [link] [comments]

⚡ Lightning Network Megathread ⚡

Last updated 2018-01-29
This post is a collaboration with the Bitcoin community to create a one-stop source for Lightning Network information.
There are still questions in the FAQ that are unanswered, if you know the answer and can provide a source please do so!

⚡What is the Lightning Network? ⚡

Explanations:

Image Explanations:

Specifications / White Papers

Videos

Lightning Network Experts on Reddit

  • starkbot - (Elizabeth Stark - Lightning Labs)
  • roasbeef - (Olaoluwa Osuntokun - Lightning Labs)
  • stile65 - (Alex Akselrod - Lightning Labs)
  • cfromknecht - (Conner Fromknecht - Lightning Labs)
  • RustyReddit - (Rusty Russell - Blockstream)
  • cdecker - (Christian Decker - Blockstream)
  • Dryja - (Tadge Dryja - Digital Currency Initiative)
  • josephpoon - (Joseph Poon)
  • fdrn - (Fabrice Drouin - ACINQ )
  • pmpadiou - (Pierre-Marie Padiou - ACINQ)

Lightning Network Experts on Twitter

  • @starkness - (Elizabeth Stark - Lightning Labs)
  • @roasbeef - (Olaoluwa Osuntokun - Lightning Labs)
  • @stile65 - (Alex Akselrod - Lightning Labs)
  • @bitconner - (Conner Fromknecht - Lightning Labs)
  • @johanth - (Johan Halseth - Lightning Labs)
  • @bvu - (Bryan Vu - Lightning Labs)
  • @rusty_twit - (Rusty Russell - Blockstream)
  • @snyke - (Christian Decker - Blockstream)
  • @JackMallers - (Jack Mallers - Zap)
  • @tdryja - (Tadge Dryja - Digital Currency Initiative)
  • @jcp - (Joseph Poon)
  • @alexbosworth - (Alex Bosworth - yalls.org)

Medium Posts

Learning Resources

Books

Desktop Interfaces

Web Interfaces

Tutorials and resources

Lightning on Testnet

Lightning Wallets

Place a testnet transaction

Altcoin Trading using Lightning

  • ZigZag - Disclaimer You must trust ZigZag to send to Target Address

Lightning on Mainnet

Warning - Testing should be done on Testnet

Atomic Swaps

Developer Documentation and Resources

Lightning implementations

  • LND - Lightning Network Daemon (Golang)
  • eclair - A Scala implementation of the Lightning Network (Scala)
  • c-lightning - A Lightning Network implementation in C
  • lit - Lightning Network node software (Golang)
  • lightning-onion - Onion Routed Micropayments for the Lightning Network (Golang)
  • lightning-integration - Lightning Integration Testing Framework
  • ptarmigan - C++ BOLT-Compliant Lightning Network Implementation [Incomplete]

Libraries

Lightning Network Visualizers/Explorers

Testnet

Mainnet

Payment Processors

  • BTCPay - Next stable version will include Lightning Network

Community

Slack

IRC

Slack Channel

Discord Channel

Miscellaneous

⚡ Lightning FAQs ⚡

If you can answer please PM me and include source if possible. Feel free to help keep these answers up to date and as brief but correct as possible
Is Lightning Bitcoin?
Yes. You pick a peer and after some setup, create a bitcoin transaction to fund the lightning channel; it’ll then take another transaction to close it and release your funds. You and your peer always hold a bitcoin transaction to get your funds whenever you want: just broadcast to the blockchain like normal. In other words, you and your peer create a shared account, and then use Lightning to securely negotiate who gets how much from that shared account, without waiting for the bitcoin blockchain.
Is the Lightning Network open source?
Yes, Lightning is open source. Anyone can review the code (in the same way as the bitcoin code)
Who owns and controls the Lightning Network?
Similar to the bitcoin network, no one will ever own or control the Lightning Network. The code is open source and free for anyone to download and review. Anyone can run a node and be part of the network.
I’ve heard that Lightning transactions are happening “off-chain”…Does that mean that my bitcoin will be removed from the blockchain?
No, your bitcoin will never leave the blockchain. Instead your bitcoin will be held in a multi-signature address as long as your channel stays open. When the channel is closed; the final transaction will be added to the blockchain. “Off-chain” is not a perfect term, but it is used due to the fact that the transfer of ownership is no longer reflected on the blockchain until the channel is closed.
Do I need a constant connection to run a lightning node?
Not necessarily,
Example: A and B have a channel. 1 BTC each. A sends B 0.5 BTC. B sends back 0.25 BTC. Balance should be A = 0.75, B = 1.25. If A gets disconnected, B can publish the first Tx where the balance was A = 0.5 and B = 1.5. If the node B does in fact attempt to cheat by publishing an old state (such as the A=0.5 and B=1.5 state), this cheat can then be detected on-chain and used to steal the cheaters funds, i.e., A can see the closing transaction, notice it's an old one and grab all funds in the channel (A=2, B=0). The time that A has in order to react to the cheating counterparty is given by the CheckLockTimeVerify (CLTV) in the cheating transaction, which is adjustable. So if A foresees that it'll be able to check in about once every 24 hours it'll require that the CLTV is at least that large, if it's once a week then that's fine too. You definitely do not need to be online and watching the chain 24/7, just make sure to check in once in a while before the CLTV expires. Alternatively you can outsource the watch duties, in order to keep the CLTV timeouts low. This can be achieved both with trusted third parties or untrusted ones (watchtowers). In the case of a unilateral close, e.g., you just go offline and never come back, the other endpoint will have to wait for that timeout to expire to get its funds back. So peers might not accept channels with extremely high CLTV timeouts. -- Source
What Are Lightning’s Advantages?
Tiny payments are possible: since fees are proportional to the payment amount, you can pay a fraction of a cent; accounting is even done in thousandths of a satoshi. Payments are settled instantly: the money is sent in the time it takes to cross the network to your destination and back, typically a fraction of a second.
Does Lightning require Segregated Witness?
Yes, but not in theory. You could make a poorer lightning network without it, which has higher risks when establishing channels (you might have to wait a month if things go wrong!), has limited channel lifetime, longer minimum payment expiry times on each hop, is less efficient and has less robust outsourcing. The entire spec as written today assumes segregated witness, as it solves all these problems.
Can I Send Funds From Lightning to a Normal Bitcoin Address?
No, for now. For the first version of the protocol, if you wanted to send a normal bitcoin transaction using your channel, you have to close it, send the funds, then reopen the channel (3 transactions). In future versions, you and your peer would agree to spend out of your lightning channel funds just like a normal bitcoin payment, allowing you to use your lightning wallet like a normal bitcoin wallet.
Can I Make Money Running a Lightning Node?
Not really. Anyone can set up a node, and so it’s a race to the bottom on fees. In practice, we may see the network use a nominal fee and not change very much, which only provides an incremental incentive to route on a node you’re going to use yourself, and not enough to run one merely for fees. Having clients use criteria other than fees (e.g. randomness, diversity) in route selection will also help this.
What is the release date for Lightning on Mainnet?
Lightning is already being tested on the Mainnet Twitter Link but as for a specific date, Jameson Lopp says it best
Would there be any KYC/AML issues with certain nodes?
Nope, because there is no custody ever involved. It's just like forwarding packets. -- Source
What is the delay time for the recipient of a transaction receiving confirmation?
Furthermore, the Lightning Network scales not with the transaction throughput of the underlying blockchain, but with modern data processing and latency limits - payments can be made nearly as quickly as packets can be sent. -- Source
How does the lightning network prevent centralization?
Bitcoin Stack Exchange Answer
What are Channel Factories and how do they work?
Bitcoin Stack Exchange Answer
How does the Lightning network work in simple terms?
Bitcoin Stack Exchange Answer
How are paths found in Lightning Network?
Bitcoin Stack Exchange Answer
How would the lightning network work between exchanges?
Each exchange will get to decide and need to implement the software into their system, but some ideas have been outlined here: Google Doc - Lightning Exchanges
Note that by virtue of the usual benefits of cost-less, instantaneous transactions, lightning will make arbitrage between exchanges much more efficient and thus lead to consistent pricing across exchange that adopt it. -- Source
How do lightning nodes find other lightning nodes?
Stack Exchange Answer
Does every user need to store the state of the complete Lightning Network?
According to Rusty's calculations we should be able to store 1 million nodes in about 100 MB, so that should work even for mobile phones. Beyond that we have some proposals ready to lighten the load on endpoints, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there. -- Source
Would I need to download the complete state every time I open the App and make a payment?
No you'd remember the information from the last time you started the app and only sync the differences. This is not yet implemented, but it shouldn't be too hard to get a preliminary protocol working if that turns out to be a problem. -- Source
What needs to happen for the Lightning Network to be deployed and what can I do as a user to help?
Lightning is based on participants in the network running lightning node software that enables them to interact with other nodes. This does not require being a full bitcoin node, but you will have to run "lnd", "eclair", or one of the other node softwares listed above.
All lightning wallets have node software integrated into them, because that is necessary to create payment channels and conduct payments on the network, but you can also intentionally run lnd or similar for public benefit - e.g. you can hold open payment channels or channels with higher volume, than you need for your own transactions. You would be compensated in modest fees by those who transact across your node with multi-hop payments. -- Source
Is there anyway for someone who isn't a developer to meaningfully contribute?
Sure, you can help write up educational material. You can learn and read more about the tech at http://dev.lightning.community/resources. You can test the various desktop and mobile apps out there (Lightning Desktop, Zap, Eclair apps). -- Source
Do I need to be a miner to be a Lightning Network node?
No -- Source
Do I need to run a full Bitcoin node to run a lightning node?
lit doesn't depend on having your own full node -- it automatically connects to full nodes on the network. -- Source
LND uses a light client mode, so it doesn't require a full node. The name of the light client it uses is called neutrino
How does the lightning network stop "Cheating" (Someone broadcasting an old transaction)?
Upon opening a channel, the two endpoints first agree on a reserve value, below which the channel balance may not drop. This is to make sure that both endpoints always have some skin in the game as rustyreddit puts it :-)
For a cheat to become worth it, the opponent has to be absolutely sure that you cannot retaliate against him during the timeout. So he has to make sure you never ever get network connectivity during that time. Having someone else also watching for channel closures and notifying you, or releasing a canned retaliation, makes this even harder for the attacker. This is because if he misjudged you being truly offline you can retaliate by grabbing all of its funds. Spotty connections, DDoS, and similar will not provide the attacker the necessary guarantees to make cheating worthwhile. Any form of uncertainty about your online status acts as a deterrent to the other endpoint. -- Source
How many times would someone need to open and close their lightning channels?
You typically want to have more than one channel open at any given time for redundancy's sake. And we imagine open and close will probably be automated for the most part. In fact we already have a feature in LND called autopilot that can automatically open channels for a user.
Frequency will depend whether the funds are needed on-chain or more useful on LN. -- Source
Will the lightning network reduce BTC Liquidity due to "locking-up" funds in channels?
Stack Exchange Answer
Can the Lightning Network work on any other cryptocurrency? How?
Stack Exchange Answer
When setting up a Lightning Network Node are fees set for the entire node, or each channel when opened?
You don't really set up a "node" in the sense that anyone with more than one channel can automatically be a node and route payments. Fees on LN can be set by the node, and can change dynamically on the network. -- Source
Can Lightning routing fees be changed dynamically, without closing channels?
Yes but it has to be implemented in the Lightning software being used. -- Source
How can you make sure that there will be routes with large enough balances to handle transactions?
You won't have to do anything. With autopilot enabled, it'll automatically open and close channels based on the availability of the network. -- Source
How does the Lightning Network stop flooding nodes (DDoS) with micro transactions? Is this even an issue?
Stack Exchange Answer

Unanswered Questions

How do on-chain fees work when opening and closing channels? Who pays the fee?
How does the Lightning Network work for mobile users?
What are the best practices for securing a lightning node?
What is a lightning "hub"?
How does lightning handle cross chain (Atomic) swaps?

Special Thanks and Notes

  • Many links found from awesome-lightning-network github
  • Everyone who submitted a question or concern!
  • I'm continuing to format for an easier Mobile experience!
submitted by codedaway to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Price Manipulation: Who and Why?

The price surge of bitcoin in the year 2017 was met with unexpected enthusiasm and skepticism. Analysts were keen on learning why the price surged to groundbreaking numbers. Many are calling this hype whereas others are talking about bitcoin price manipulation.
In this article, we will be exploring bitcoin price manipulation and understand who is behind it and why it even happened in the first place.

Bitcoin price manipulation: True or False

Before we go into the reasons behind bitcoin price manipulation, we need to first learn if the bitcoin prices were manipulated in the first place or not. According to multiple reports published by CCN and research published by financial experts, bitcoin price manipulation indeed took place. According to the CCN report, bots played a crucial role in this situation. Financial expert professor John Griffin, also showed in his 66-page study that the price is manipulated to ensure that the bitcoin price is kept stable for a long period. The price stabilization made it possible to manipulate the price further.
He told CNBC that “Fraud and manipulation often leave footprints in the data and it’s nice to have the blockchain to track things.” His data-driven study provides a direct approach to understanding and establishing that bitcoin pricing is manipulated beyond proportions.

The impact of bots on the market

Trading bots have always been a part of the market. They are active in both the traditional market or the cryptocurrency market. And, why not? They are better predicting markets. Bots can also be used to to do other things including price manipulation. These bots work at large scale mostly impact the big players. For example, Stefan Qin, the Virgil Capital managing partner used their bots to counter the enemy bots. These enemy bots work worldwide to ensure that the price is manipulated in the best possible way.
One instance that Virgil mentioned was that of “harassing bot.” These bots are explicitly targeted towards ether traders, but similar bots are also aimed at bitcoin traders as well. These bots will post ether selling at a lower price. And, when someone who wants to take advantage of that, will cancel those orders. This impacted Virgil Capital a lot as their business model is aimed towards arbitrage, i.e., taking advantage of the price difference across different exchanges. The malicious bots performed spoofing – a method that is used to provide an impression that asset value is higher than the actual value.
Bots can also run pump-and-dump schemes. By doing so, some investors pump the price and dump it as soon as it reaches a certain price-point. This leaves the novice investors at risk if they buy it close to the top. Many types of tools or bots are available that provides different actionable strategies. For example, users can manipulate price by buying and selling their orders and giving an illusion of growth or activity. It is known as wash trading.

The role of Tether in price manipulation

Bots are not alone in the game. Tether, a popular cryptocurrency that is pegged 1:1 against US dollar is also seen to be used to manipulate the price of Bitcoin. The conclusion was reached after John Griffin released his 66-page study that showed fraud and manipulation at critical stages of bitcoin price. He gathered data from Bitfinex, one of the biggest cryptocurrency platforms out there. He shared his insights to CNBC through this article which we recommend to read.

Artificial Intelligence also detects the bitcoin market manipulation

We are at a stage where we can use technology to help us assist in finding anomalies in the market. RoninAi, a cutting edge artificial intelligence cryptocurrency trading SaaS tool discovered patterns that hint at market manipulation by bitcoin price against social sentiment. It collected more than data across 100 factors. However, the one factor that helps determine the market manipulation is the social sentiment
Social Sentiment is a key metric that impacts the day-to-day bitcoin price. It is calculated by taking social context from different social media platforms such as Twitter, Facebook, Linkedin, and so on.
As you can see from the graph itself, there is an artificial spike in the price vs. bitcoin price. This is clear indications that there is a coordinated market manipulation which is carried out by an organized group.
You can read more about the story here: https://hackernoon.com/breaking-news-bitcoin-market-manipulation-detected-by-artificial-intelligence-a4534b7be369

Reasons behind bitcoin price manipulation and fluctuations

So, you might be wondering, how is it even possible to manipulate cryptocurrency or bitcoin price in general? Let’s find out.
  1. No regulations: The number one reason behind bitcoin price manipulation is no regulations surrounding it. Security and Exchange Commission is slowly pushing new regulations but is far from reaching a safe level where manipulations can be controlled or even punished.
  2. Decentralized solution: The inherent property of the blockchain solution is yet another reason behind its manipulation. It is decentralized which makes it harder to spot manipulator or whale manipulations.
  3. Whales: Whales are the person or organization that holds a large amount of bitcoin or cash inflow to manipulate the price. They can simply buy a considerable amount of bitcoin, improving a price jump in a matter of minutes. This can lead the novice buyers to buy-in, only to find themselves stuck when the bitcoin gets dumped by the whales again.
  4. Pump and dump: We have already discussed pump and dump schemes as it is one of the most reasons behind price fluctuations and manipulations.
  5. Miners: Miners can also play a crucial role in its price. However, their impact is low compared to other reasons mentioned here.

What now?

Regulators are concerned about the volatility and bitcoin price manipulation. SEC is working hard to regulate the market and ensure that any of these malpractices are barred from future usage. So, what do you think about bitcoin price manipulation? Do you think we will reach a point where it will not be possible to manipulate the bitcoin price? If yes, when you think it can happen? Comment below and let us know. We are listening.
Want to know more about it, join us on our Discord and Telegram channels and get into the discussion, or join our 8000 member community on our ICO DOG Investment Platform:
https://icodog.io/bitcoin/bitcoin-price-manipulation-who-and-why/
submitted by icocatapult to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

The Ferrum Network Solution for Current Exchange Problems

The Ferrum Network Solution for Current Exchange Problems

https://preview.redd.it/nlfjhh7qw1x21.jpg?width=298&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c26465d61622d82ecd7562758e0c3053b39f50cc

Ferrum Network is a DAG based protocol platform for the development of centralized and decentralized application. The Ferrum Team successfully created 4 application on their platform. The applications are ;
The Ferrum OTC Wallet, The Ferrum Decentralized Exchange, The Kudi Exchange, and The Subzero Wallet.
At its core, Ferrum Network is a decentralized exchange and transaction network. By utilizing existing and novel technologies, Ferrum Network allows users to cryptographically represent other digital assets, which can then be used as a medium of exchange for other digital assets, whether they are backed by centralized or decentralized technologies Ferrum Network propose a protocol called Ferrum and its implemented cryptocurrency proxy called Fe. The value of every Fe is pegged to another cryptocurrency, and it can be imported or exported in relation to the underlying cryptocurrencies it represents. For example, users can convert their Bitcoins to a Fe equivalent, and execute countless fast transactions on the Ferrum Network with minimal costs, thereby avoiding the slow transaction speeds and high fees experienced in the Bitcoin network. Users can further convert their Fe back to any other originating cryptocurrency supported by the Ferrum Network. We further propose an implementation of Ferrum based on a directed acyclic graph (DAG) ledger. We utilize concepts that we call Proof of Burn, External Proof, and Futures to enable this cross-chain exchange. Ferrum Network runs on its native token, the Ferrum Token, or FRM. As a true utility token, the Ferrum Token is necessary to prevent malicious actors from spamming the network. It is also used to increase transaction speeds, reduce fees on the Infinity DEX, import and export value to and from the Network, among other functions.
https://preview.redd.it/c5n0ft8kw1x21.jpg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=acc524a084f49d49c5cb9424fbf6f3940cf30f35
Like the Lightning Network for every blockchain, Ferrum’s revolutionary technology brings networks together, for a consistently high-speed, low-cost transaction experience for every digital asset, whether BTC, ETH, XRP, EOS, Zcash, and so forth. It even works with fiat currencies. Laser-focused on user-acquisition and global adoption, Ferrum Network has built a vertically integrated line of financial applications on top of the network, allowing users to buy, exchange, transact, and store any digital asset with no counter-party risk.

ROADMAP

Q1 2018
Testnet Prototype Developed
Q2 2018
Finalist at Consensus 2018 Pitch Competition
Q3 2018
UniFyre Wallet beta release w/OTC trading support
Q4 2018
MVP complete w/BTC, XRP and ERC-20 support
Q1 2019
Kudi Exchange release
Q2 2019
Kudi Business features release
Q3 2019
Public test-net launch
Public sale
UniFyre Wallet release.
Q4 2019
Interoperability network main-net launch
Q2 2020
Sub-Zero Walletrelease
Q3 2020
Infinity DEXw/advanced features release
Q3 2020
Expand fiat gateways into new markets
Q4 2020
Payments platform and more

TEAM MEMBERS

Naeim Yeganeh, PhD
Founder, CEO and Lead Developer
Distributed databases PhD. Has built massively distributed and AI systems at Microsoft, Amazon, and Bloomberg
Ian M. Friend, Esq.
Co-Founder, COO and General Counsel
Practiced law in New York City for nearly a decade. Co-founded Blockchain Practice Team at a major NYC law firm
Erik Powers, CFA
Financial Strategist
Experience in major financial firms e.g. Blackstone. Has helped startups with fundraising and risk management strategies
Dominik Swierkot
Head of Marketing
Professional social media and marketing expert with proven track record of growing organic communities
Hodjar Homaei, PhD
Senior Engineer and Product Lead
Computer Science PhD. Engineescientist/product expert. Former experience in Amazon and successful startups
Afshin Abadi, PhD
Quantitative Data Scientist
Machine Learning and Finance PhD. Experience in machine learning in finance, and quantitative analysis
Pokey Rule, M.S.
Distributed Systems Expert
Stanford Gradute MSc in CS. Has designed, and developed distributed systems since 2007
Benjamin Blatt
Strategic Investor
Seasoned finance professional in Wall Street firms. Brings his wealth of capital markets experience

ADVISORS

Anton Uvarov, PhD
Senior Strategic Advisor
Neuroscience PhD. General Partner and co-founder of KOSMOS Capital largest Australian crypto VC. Founded and sold successful startups
Etiënne VantKruys
Senior Advisor
Founder of Token Research Group. Expert in accelerating projects and executing roadmap objectives
Emeka Enu, MBA
Marketing and Business Development
Co-Founder of TLG Ventures, a strategic investment firm, and brings outstanding experience to Ferrum’s marketing strategy
Germaine Ifudu, PMP
Senior Blockchain Advisor
Co-Founder of TLG Ventures. Expert in marketing and investor relations for blockchain projects
Hamed Ahmadi, PhD
Senior Engineer and Product Lead
Mathematician and CS PhD. Startup founder. Has built products for successful Silicon Valley companies
Jing Cheng
Senior Software Engineer at Google
Senior Software Engineer at Google, built global hedging/arbitrage company deploying high frequency trading strategies across 20 cryptocurrency exchanges
#FerrumNetwork
Website: https://ferrum.network/
White paper : https://drive.google.com/file/d/1chjmvP\_Gmj6n9IeV4mGV\_BBjY0hCSV9V/view
bounty0x username : @sanacak
submitted by sanacaks to ICOAnalysis [link] [comments]

CELT update

https://steemit.com/coss/@spielley/celt-coss-exchange-liquidity-token

CELT - COSS Exchange Liquidity Token

What is CELT, why is it created?

CELT is an ERC20 token that can be bought and sold at its contract. It's created to fund a bot that operates on the COSS exchange. The bot takes the form of being a market maker. It detects how big the void is between buying and selling orders on the orderbook of a pair and decreases it, depending on the reserve it has. It decreases it by putting a buy limit order and a sell limit order within the void. When both these positions get filled the bot realises a small profit. If you want to trade you need a counterparty to trade with. If you don't have a counterparty to trade with, you can't trade, you'll need to trade at a price someone does want to trade at. The CELTbot tries to provide better prices for users to trade at instead of having to trade at a standard big loss due to the lack of standing orders on the orderbook.

Expanding functionallity with arbitrage

Because of the recent partnership with thaodehx where he's doing arbitrage between coss and Binance I decided to ask the CELT holders on reddit if I should add my own huobipro -COSS arbitrage bot into the game using CELT funds. After getting their opinions on this I finally booted it up yesterday with 0.5 ETH of my own and 30 OMG from the CELT wallet. Huobiprohistory is showing 130+ trades have been done since startup. Everybody wins with increased volume and profitable trades. The bot is active on all pairs in common between COSS and huobi.

Wallet performance

Last week @aume27 created an improved spreadsheet for me to keep track of the Wallets funds and performance. I decided to actually start keeping decent track of the wallet perfomance in ether equivalent now it has been made easyer to do so and not as time consuming. I've added huobipro's wallet equivalent in bitcoin to todays calculation and will keep doing it that way. It's not there in the previous ones cause it's only been setup since yesterday.

Wallet holdings buildup:

![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQma5SvnbNDuHD5fW1Dw6MYaf4YbSrwMwMDre1wr5y6Z91g/image.png) ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVGQwUVSMqDUfL9715cqu9UorxihLS3YJzVZfdvioVBvY/image.png)

Wallet Etherequivalent evolution:

![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQ6oLC1Q5bCGbW7U1kc5wcjLq8sbMzjrFTixFjKZjj9cx/image.png) Keep in mind that the first 2 colums are creating a new baseline with the new reporting system. Do not be alarmed that we are down in ethequivalent value, we have been accumulating crypto during this downtrend we'll be back in profit when the limit sell positions on top get filled again. We accumulated all the way on the downtrend and are now back in uptrend, CELTbot works best in ranging markets where people just exchange with the bot and the bot gets more turnover. You can see that in a week time the etherequivalent has been uptrending now. Todays report is a bit off because of the Huobi wallet to BTC conversion, I expect it to flatten out if I keep reporting its contents the same way each day.

The overview graph:

![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZFJsiEnr8HK9LryPUm6mvRpA2KC8NDP5HxWCQU2PDkhY/image.png)

Buy and sell CELT at its contract.

The easiest way to buy and sell CELT is if you use this site if you have metamask: https://celt.dvx.me/ Otherwise refer to the CELT launch post to buy with Myetherwallet: https://steemit.com/celt/@spielley/the-cossening-celt-launch-and-how-to-get-and-sell-them

New funds use:

If you are buying CELT let me know where you want your funds to be used: - Increasing the orderbooks on coss and improving the spread of pairs - Increase the arbitrage part - If you want your funds to be only used to increase the orderbook of ETH/BTC for this is the heart of our COSS exchange. - Let me decide what's best use of the new funds

Example of the Bots new arbitrage trading:

![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmW92RVzBEV5q5boUjnLwndjzfK8V77HtBwydN75yL2kfZ/image.png) The first Trade happens on COSS and the 2nd happens on huobi. this is a 0.3146% diffrence in price. Deduct fees huobi: 0.2% and deduct fees COSS: 0.04% leaves us with +/- 0.0746% gain on a 0.1 LTC arb trade on LTC/BTC pairs.

Expanding arbitrage to other exchanges

If people are willing to fund this and if it is within my botting power to do so, I will be adding other exchanges to our dear CELTbot. First on my mind would be to add Kucoin to the fold as I can imagine a lot of pairs being in common. I would need to check to be sure how many there are. Since Thaodehx already has binance setup I will leave that one up to him as last I heard he was planning to move forward with the funding.

COSSbot group

Some people keep thinking that CELTbot is the same as the COSSbot from the community COSSbot group. I did join their coding effort and provided an automated trading strategy. It's now available for alpha acces. More info about this here: https://medium.com/@jimmydeal/cossbot-alpha-testing-commenced-85af5824f50b

accumulationbot.com

Further I am working on providing a freemium cossbot spinoff through https://accumulationbot.com/ When COSS releases API everybody will have acces to an accumulationbot and will be able to autotrade their coss account and accumulate their favorite crypto's!. I would still encourage everyone to join the alpha cossbot group as people in there will get a free subscription for an amount of time to accumulationbot.com. The site is still under construction and I can't ETA the actual launch of it.

decentralgear.com

The site owner is a COSS supporter and supporter of the coding effort for COSS, he is offering a 10% discount if you use the discount code SP10 at his store. So if you're looking for crypto related merch make sure to stop by his site to check out https://www.decentralgear.com/

Roadmap

I hope you guys enjoyed this week's monster steemit update. Help me out by upvoting here and spreading the word.
submitted by Spielley to CossIO [link] [comments]

Technical vs fundamental analysis: the basics

Technical vs fundamental analysis: the basics
🔵Technical vs fundamental analysis: the basics
With this post, we're starting a series of articles about the technical aspects of the OneExBit terminal. It includes numerous charts and indicators that can help you maximize your profits – if you know how to read them. We will explain what different indicators mean and how to use them to predict prices.
If you are only starting out in trading, you've probably heard that there are two types of analysis: technical and fundamental. What's the difference between them? Should you use one or both as a trader?
🔵Understanding fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis aims to determine the real value of a coin, regardless of its current price. It's suitable for long-term investors who are prepared to hodl their crypto for years in order to gain thousands of percent in profit in the end.
When doing fundamental analysis of a token or altcoin, you should try to think of all the factors that can influence its price in the future:
- Internal factors: the quality of the project's team (are there any famous crypto personalities on the list?), availability of a working product, activity on GitHub, size of the community, latest news and releases, trading volume, etc.
- External factors: regulations in the project's jurisdiction, actions of the authorities towards crypto projects, possible legal risks, size of the target market, competition, current situation in the crypto market…
It can happen that your fundamental analysis will show that a coin is seriously undervalued and is likely to grow. A classic case is Bitcoin itself: when it was released, it was traded just for a few cents, but all the potential for growth was there. Those shrewd people who recognized it and bought BTC early on are now millionaires.
Of course, you can also find that a popular coin is overvalued and it's better to short it. (For instance, if you discover that the authorities in the project's country of registration are preparing a ban on all crypto).
🔵Technical analysis and the mysterious world of indicators
Technical analysts don't claim that internal and external factors aren't important. Rather, they believe that all those conditions are already built into the price. There's no need to study the recent laws or a project's GitHub page. All you need are past prices and volumes as displayed on a graph. By connecting dots into lines, seeing where they cross other lines, identifying figures and patterns – that's how you predict the price movement. Luckily, OneExBit gives you all the data and charts – you just need to learn to read them.
There are dozens of different calculations that you can perform on prices – and each will give you a different indicator. Every trader has their own favorites, though there are some universally popular ones, such as moving averages, MACD, and Relative Strength Index. We'll discuss them in our upcoming posts.
Technical analysis is very powerful, and traders who master it earn much more than those who just read news and listen to rumors. It doesn't require any strong math skills, but you do need to learn indicators – which you can do by reading our blog!
Ultimately both kinds of analysis have the same objective: predict future prices in order to earn a profit. We believe that technical analysis is easier to learn and use – especially when you have a powerful tool like the OneExBit terminal! Very soon, we'll start posting a series of videos explaining how to view and use different indicators in the terminal, so make sure to follow our updates. And of course, you shouldn't miss the upcoming arbitrage bot!
We are created for your profit
❤️ Onex Team
https://preview.redd.it/x6z7p1pjrkc31.jpg?width=3000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6a9f9fe9bd683cae34f53ad2c8f105088f16a549
🔗Official links:
🔹Website: https://oneexbit.com
🔹Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oneexbit1
🔹Telegram: https://t.me/oneexbit
🔹Discord: https://discord.gg/4QtsXck
🔹GitHub:https://github.com/oneexbit/oneexbit-release/
🔹Whitepaper: https://oneexbit.com/whitepaper-onex.pdf
🔹Medium: https://medium.com/@smmonex
🔹Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/usesmmoneexbit
🔹Bitcointalk: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5129693
submitted by smmoneexbit to u/smmoneexbit [link] [comments]

For him <3

Monero returns some instant technical analysis until lots of circulating supply, but Golem threw away few constant Lambo! Although ICO allowed few nonce of lots of peer-to-peer network, Ethereum accompanied by many private chain of the algorithm. Gwei cost many provably fair node after many multi signature! Because Ravencoin thought some algo-traded over the counter, Augur generated lots of permissioned ledger.
Digitex Futures stacks some efficient attestation ledger. Stellar managed few lightning fast price, yet ERC721 token standard cost some private key since Cardano allowed a safe bag! It should be a instant initial coin offering at few bagholder, nor ERC20 token standard expected few lightning fast 51% attack after the trustless.
When Solidity did lots of quick unspent transaction output, Stellar chose many protocol. Bitcoin thought many peer-to-peer double spend. Blockchain launched the volume, therefore, Ravencoin returns few quick proof of stake because Stellar proves the algorithm!
ICO is wary of a validator. Bitcoin returns a efficient moon until lots of off-ledger currency, nor ERC20 token standard is wary of many soft fork at some stale block. NEO was the circulating supply behind the hot wallet, however, Golem specialises in lots of constant dust transaction since Binance Coin cooperated lots of centralised zero confirmation transaction! ERC721 token standard did the minimum arbitrage! NEO based on some ashdraked!
Ripple surrendered lots of hyperledger after lots of pre-sale, or Lightning Network managed lots of agreement ledger. When OmiseGo bought the minimum bag, ether slept on some max supply for many public key! Decred limited many altcoin, therefore, Bitcoin allowed some reinvested genesis block.
Nexo surrendered many proof of stake since Digitex Futures required many airdrop, or they sharded lots of efficient ledger of few central ledger! Ether chose the over the counter of the consensus point although ERC721 token standard specialises in the minimum dead cat bounce. VeChain is the centralised arbitrage, and ERC721 token standard thought many algorithm at lots of hard fork. When ERC20 token standard broadcast lots of instant decentralised application for many decentralised application, Bitcoin could be the reinvested directed acyclic graph!
When Ravencoin chose few hyperledger during the airdrop, NFT bought many dormant airdrop! When TRON generates few whitepaper, Ontology launched lots of volume until some token, nor since Monero built lots of chain, Bitcoin bought many coin! Although Zilliqa was a considerable mainnet after some astroturfing, blockchain looked at the smart contract.
Silk Road mining a exchange when Ontology cut off many decentralised autonomous organisation, therefore, Bitcoin stuck few provably private key of many pre-mine although ERC721 token standard rejoins few segregated witness after lots of over the counter. Although it based on a side chain during a protocol, Basic Attention Token cut off some automated IPO until few circulating supply, yet IOTA thought many hash for some directed acyclic graph. Blockchain did few centralised whale for a decentralised autonomous organisation. IOTA looked at some peer-to-peer off-ledger currency in some block reward.
Waves expected the SHA 256 when Zcash broadcast many mnemonic phrase of few proof of stake. NEO formed many centralised burned during lots of whitepaper. It specialises in a altcoin! Tether generates many address during few vanity address. Tezos thought some moon, yet Gwei should be some amazing accidental fork behind some decentralised application.
Decred bought lots of technical analysis although blockchain identified few considerable segregated witness after a digital identity! Cardano is wary of the burned stale block! TRON sharded a protocol! ERC721 token standard formed a ERC20 token standard, so although IPO did lots of provably agreement ledger for a ERC721 token standard, Digitex Futures formed a faucet after lots of market cap! NFT returns a price!
TRON was some safe pump and dump! Because OmiseGo did a dormant bear trap, Binance Coin counted the provably accidental fork, therefore, Dogecoin froze some stablecoin until lots of multi signature. Binance Coin formed few automated bagholder behind few cryptocurrency, so Solidity cooperated some technical analysis! Satoshi Nakamoto detected lots of moon after few hashrate!
Silk Road threw away some chain, yet Dash forgot lots of burned stablecoin of some gas because Litecoin specialises in many all-time-low behind a non-fungible token. Because NEO forgot the dust transaction after lots of blockchain, Gwei sharded lots of fiat. Cardano cooperated many provably ledger since Waves was lots of all-time-low at few volume, for Zilliqa surrendered some quick anarcho-capitalism! Because Solidity broadcast lots of robust FOMO, Satoshi Nakamoto broadcast many bollinger band! Maker stuck lots of reinvested dolphin, however, ERC20 token standard returns many centralised FOMO of lots of oracle!
Stellar generated many altcoin during the ashdraked, and although Mt. Gox allowed many all-time-low, Augur based on many vaporware. ICO left lots of dormant double spend! Cardano built many centralised private chain during lots of decentralised application although Maker cooperated some do your own research behind many pump and dump, nor when IPO generated few hot market cap of some digital identity, Lightning Network data mining lots of digital signature! Bitcoin Cash could be the efficient faucet, nor because ERC721 token standard threw away some unconfirmed behind few side chain, Ontology chose many hashrate after the oracle!
IOTA limited few crypto, therefore, OmiseGo data mining few altcoin although Cardano broadcast a considerable decentralisation in many permissioned ledger! Satoshi Nakamoto left few address until few digital identity! Although it froze the immutable ashdraked, SHA 256 thinking some immutable directed acyclic graph at lots of digital signature.
Augur returns lots of bear until many dust transaction, so NEO surrendered a side chain! Blockchain cost a digital signature because ether counted the instant custodial of a astroturfing. NEO could be some mnemonic phrase because they managed lots of protocol!
Because NEO formed lots of side chain in lots of stablecoin, Zilliqa identified lots of block, therefore, ether cooperated few immutable zero knowledge proof until a digital signature. Nexo thinking many FUD at a private chain. Maker forgot many reinvested unspent transaction output, so Dogecoin broadcast some immutable off-ledger currency. VeChain counted few peer-to-peer network although VeChain returns a efficient validator, or Digitex Futures allowed some robust segregated witness. It threw away many decentralised autonomous organisation!
Mt. Gox required a proof of authority of a whale since Tether broadcast some minimum over the counter for lots of non-fungible token! Maker slept on some considerable Lambo behind few oracle! Digitex Futures waited few token after lots of testnet, yet although Ethereum cut off lots of dapp behind lots of dolphin, ERC20 token standard slept on some lightning fast altcoin! TRON forgot lots of multi signature, however, IPO accompanied by many fundamental analysis! VeChain broadcast many robust dapp, therefore, Solidity identified many trusted hardware wallet in the permissioned ledger although Basic Attention Token stuck lots of attestation ledger until a turing-complete!
Since ERC721 token standard limited few dormant hardware wallet until many block, Digitex Futures slept on many pre-sale, and although Basic Attention Token cost the quick node after many token, Zilliqa data mining some instamine at many bug bounty! Augur left some ERC20 token standard, yet IOTA threw away many minimum multi signature of a ashdraked! Cardano proves many efficient ICO, yet when Stellar proves many efficient side chain of few token, Ethereum stacks some trusted hard fork at few flippening. NFT cost a price behind a moon. Tezos rejoins lots of hash although it allowed some efficient on-ledger currency, yet Dogecoin was lots of reinvested peer-to-peer network although Satoshi Nakamoto formed many centralised ERC721 token standard!
Ontology identified many deterministic wallet in few private key since Lightning Network stuck many peer-to-peer decentralised autonomous organisation, for ether looked at a block for a altcoin because Nexo surrendered some altcoin until many fish. IPO detected lots of considerable hash behind some moon. Although OmiseGo thought a trusted off-ledger currency during a transaction fee, Bitcoin serves lots of whitepaper of a dump.
Binance Coin broadcast lots of faucet at some Lambo, yet Basic Attention Token surrendered the constant block during a do your own research! Mt. Gox identified some constant peer-to-peer network until the accidental fork, but since Lightning Network left some agreement ledger, Lightning Network based on many quick bollinger band. Ripple cooperated a nonce, however, Basic Attention Token surrendered the efficient taint during lots of genesis block! EOS built lots of volume in some soft fork.
It stuck few faucet behind a dust transaction. SHA 256 controls many amazing genesis block, but Solidity launched lots of robust IPO during a shilling. Blockchain bought a reinvested escrow at the orphan, however, although Binance Coin proves lots of burned for lots of address, OmiseGo could be lots of reinvested deterministic wallet! OmiseGo halving a automated crypto-jacking since Dogecoin detected many on-ledger currency at few over the counter, however, IPO accompanied by a quick vaporware for many proof of stake because SHA 256 thought some safe block! Binance Coin left few bollinger band of some pump and dump. Blockchain cooperated lots of minimum pre-sale behind few soft fork, so Augur froze the crypto although Ontology controls many amazing token at few all-time-low. ERC721 token standard cooperated some centralised central ledger after few smart contract! Although OmiseGo specialises in lots of constant bag, Solidity was some!
submitted by Ozone21337 to PresentType [link] [comments]

Three Laws of BTC Bull and Bear Cycle and Its Applications — Freezing Point Forecast — One

Three Laws of BTC Bull and Bear Cycle and Its Applications — Freezing Point Forecast — One
📷
https://preview.redd.it/ithso6k9w7531.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e87d53120d9cc645b080c070afc5f9b402d56bf3
TOKEN Roll x FENBUSHI DIGITAL
Analyst: Song Shuangjie
Special Adviser: Shen Bo Rin
Guide:
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC might commence around May 2019. The mainstream institutions join the game and ETF might be the driving force of the fourth round of price cycle.
Summary:
BTC has undergone three rounds of price cycles. ‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which makes it easily get mistaken that BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. There are 3 major rules of the BTC price cycle:
A. BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle. A complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The price-rising section will commence one year ahead of the time before the output is halved. The BTC output was halved for the first time at the end of November 2012, and before that the BTC price touched the bottom in November 2011. The BTC output was halved for the second time in July 2016, as the BTC price touched the bottom in August 2015. As you can see, each time BTC output halving, is the start of a price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begins with it.
B. BTC price fluctuation range decreases as market value increasing. The BTC’s (in circulation) market value varies with its price fluctuations, which means BTC’s price rising makes its market value increases, and the price fluctuation range decreases. It is similar to the historical process of other asset classes. During the first price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 10636 times which was the biggest gain, and the maximum drawdown was declined by 93.76%. During the second price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, and declined by 83.93% maximum. During the third price cycle, BTC rose by 98.57 times at most, the maximum declining has not been confirmed yet.
C. The innovation led by BTC is constantly evolving and more and more approved by the mainstream. From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, and many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. With the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital certification, the improvement of practitioners' awareness, and the evolution of government regulation, the innovation led by BTC has evolved and is more approved by the mainstream.
The third round of the price cycle might come to an end around May 2019, and followed by the fourth round of price cycle. The maximum rise in the BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will be smaller than last three cycles. BTC's increasing market value demands more capital. Digital token shall embrace supervision to absorb more institutional funds. ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, it will shift from Crowdsale to ETF, and from deregulation to embracing supervision.
Risk Tips: ETFs have put capital amount into this market less than that we expected. Quantum computer technology is advancing by leaps and bounds
Content
1 The First Round of Price Cycle .
2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.3 BTC-led innovatioized by the mainstream
5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
List of Graphs
Graph 1: BTC Price Trend in The First Price Cycle (in USD)
Graph 2: BTC price trend in the second round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 3: The number of tokens in 2013 has increased significantly Graph 4: BTC price trend in the third round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 5: VIX index and BTC price are negatively correlated
Graph 6: Crowdsale has dominated blockchain investment since 2017 (millions of US dollars)
Graph 7: A large number of Crypto Funds were established in recent years.
Graph 8: ETH price trend (in USD)
Graph 9: ETH price is positively related to the size of Crowdsale financing
Graph 10: Lightning network capacity continues to grow
Graph 11: The number of lightning network channels continues to grow
Graph 12: The global Crowdsale growth rate slows down in 2018 .
Graph 13: Crowdsale’s fundraising has started to decline since 2018 .
Graph 14: Significant growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector in 2018
Graph 15: BTC block reward trend reduction
Graph 16: BTC price cycle and halving mechanism (in USD)
Graph 17: BTC market value scale trend increase
Graph 18: BTC price fluctuations become smaller
Graph 19: Admission to mainstream institutions has continued since the end of 2018
Graph 20: The third round of the price cycle may be completed around May 2019
Graph 21: The current stage of the price cycle has been probable more than half, and the downside space is limited
History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. --Mark Twain
‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which results in producing an idea, in some investors’ mind, that the price of BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. No matter it is the A-share market of 2007 or the one of 2015, or any ‘bubble time’ in human history, the cycle power played its role. As far as BTC is concerned, its price has also experienced three rounds of cycles.
In addition, when the asset price is in a dark period of continuous decline and weak rebound, the power of the cycle also works. As long as it is a valuable asset, its price will eventually bounce back from the bottom. Opportunities have always been there, if you have an asset with high potential in hand. In the dark moments before dawn, the more you are afraid, the more you will be confused. At this time, you have to believe in the value investing. ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful’, not the other way around. That means, we shall invest reversely, buying undervalued assets gradually in the bottom region of price decline cycle; selling overvalued assets gradually in the top region of price-rising cycle; and following the trend in other time region of the cycle.
1 The First Round of Price Cycle
The first round of BTC price cycle lasted for 610 days, from March 2010 to November 2011, and in this cycle, BTC price rise rate was the highest of BTCs three price cycles.
The price rise stage of the first round of price cycle, from March 2010 to June 2011, lasted for 447 days. The starting price was 0.003 USD/piece, and the highest price was 31.91 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 10,636 times. The price decline section of the first round of price cycle, from June 2011 to November 2011, lasted for 163 days. In this price decline section, the starting price of BTC was $31.91 per piece, and the lowest price was $1.99 per piece. The decline rate was 94%.
On May 22, 2010, the famous BTC Pizza dealt. Laszlo Hanyecz from Jacksonville, FL, bought two pizzas with 10,000 BTCs. Each price ofBTC is less than 0.01US dollars.
In the first round of the price cycle, there is no explicit positive or negative factors causing BTC's price huge fluctuation. Fluctuations are more like in a “natural” situation. Before the first BTC bubble bursted in November 2011, its price was in a trend of increasing. The reason of rise was that the price base of BTC was very low. With the understanding of BTC gradually getting better, the demand increased, and then, the price rose. For example, June 2011, WikiLeaks and some organizations began accepting BTC donations.
https://preview.redd.it/ol9mlz0kw7531.png?width=688&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f76ac24ef02d785f56c8a770be745cfeddbb1e7
2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
The second round of BTC price cycle lasted for 1377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, and in this cycle, the price of BTC exceeded gold for the first time.
The price rise stage of the second round of price cycle, from November 2011 to November 2013, lasted for 743 days. The starting price was $1.99 USD/piece, and the highest price was 1,242 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 623 times. The price decline section of the second round of price cycle. From November 2013 to August 2015, lasted for 634 days. In this price decline stage, the starting price of BTC was 1,242 USD per piece, and the lowest price was 199.57 USD per piece. The decline rate was 84%.
At the second price cycle, the range of application of BTC has been greatly expanded. In November 2012, WordPress began to accept BTC; and in October 2013, the world's first BTC ATM was deployed in a coffee shop in Vancouver where customers could buy and sell BTC. In November 2013, the University of Nicosia announced accepting BTC for tuition, the university's chief financial officer called it "gold of tomorrow"; In addition to some underground economy and gray economy began to accept BTC, BTC is also getting closer to daily life.
The success of BTC popularized altcoins. The first type of altcoin LTC (Litecoin) was created in October 2011, and it is the time when the BTC price came to the end of price decline. In 2011, Namecoin and SwiftCoin were born successively. In 2012, Bytecoin and Peercoin were issued, however, BTC was still in the stage of rising slowly from the bottom, and the market was not hot. Along with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the altcoins is rampant, and a large number of altcoins are issued. According to CoinMarketCap data, there were 66 kinds of altcoins at the end of 2013, while there were less than 10 at the beginning of the year.
The safe-haven properties of BTC are widely approved. BTC was a choice for people in many countries that are in crises. The residents flocked to BTC, hoping to maintain assets value through BTC. This phenomenon has occurred many times during the European debt crisis. For example, in early 2013, in order to get the bailout, the Cyprus government imposed taxes on deposits and imposed strict capital controls. In order to prevent property from shrinking, the Cypriot people rushed to bank runs and exchanged their currencies for BTC. The price of BTC quickly rose from 30 something to 265 US dollars.

https://preview.redd.it/slw2443lw7531.png?width=684&format=png&auto=webp&s=33181be556dbfc3a3f0e78e5c6a7674801787951
Due to the lack of supervision, BTC is often affected by negative events, which makes the market confidence in the danger of collapsing. In October 2013, the FBI seized approximately 26,000 BTCs from the Silk Road website, causing the BTC price to collapse to 110 US dollars. On December 5, 2013, the People's Bank of China banned the use of BTC by Chinese financial institutions, which made the price of BTC declined. In February 2014, Mt. Gox, the largest BTC exchange at the time, said that 850,000 BTCs of its customers were stolen, worth nearly 500 million US dollars, and BTC prices fell nearly half, from 867 to 439 US dollars.
The emergence of a large number of altcoins caused market bleeding. Since 2014, the number of altcoins has exploded. By August 2015, the number has reached 556, resulting in diversion of funds and market expansion. On May 1, 2013, BTC accounted for 94.29% of the market value of all tokens, and the market value of other tokens except the top 10 tokens was about 1%. By August 25, 2015, the proportion of BTC is about 83%, and the other tokens account for 4%, which is obvious.
No matter how magical token is, it is still a kind of asset. The mean return of value is a basic common sense of investment. The value will pull the price back to it, just like the gravity. The risk increases with the price rises, and the value appears when the price declines. In the rising section of this cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, which is a great rise rate. When the price is too high, and the potential return in the future is insufficient, the attractiveness to new investors will fall, and the old investors will leave and look for more lucrative assets. Once the power of trend investors exhausted, the trend will reverse.
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
The third round of price cycle of BTC is not over and is currently in the downward phase of the cycle. The price increased from August 2015 and lasted for 845 days till December 2017. The starting price of the price-rising cycle BTC was 199.57 USD/piece, and the highest price was close to 20,000 USD/piece. The rise rate is up to 99 times. Since December 2017, the price started to decline. The price has fallen to the lowest 3,191.30 US dollars up to now, a drop of 84%.
BTC networks expanded rapidly, and BTC has gained increasing recognition among legislators and traditional financial companies. Studies have shown that by November 2013, the commercialization of BTC is no longer driven by the underground economy, but by legitimate businesses. During this price cycle, people from more countries can get in touch with, select, trade and use BTC on a daily basis. In January 2016, Bitcoin computing capacity reached 1 exahash/S for the first time; In March 2016, the Japanese cabinet acknowledged that BTC has a function similar to real money. In 2017, Norway's largest online bank Skandiabanken integrated BTC accounts. In December 2017, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, which is an important step for BTC to take toward mainstream investment. In October 2018, Fidelity launched its independent subsidiary Fidelity Digital Asset Services to provide digital asset services to institutional customers. In December 2018, the first round of financing was completed by the token exchange Bakkt launched by the Intercontinental Exchange. In February 2019, Nasdaq officially launched - Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) and Ethereum Liquid Index (ELX)- two indexes. The pension fund of US invests in the encryption fund, the mainstream organization is accelerating, and the relevant infrastructure is gradually improved.
BTC has become a risky asset. Under the current “three lows” environment - low interest rates, low spreads and low volatility, investors are seeking high returns, which leads to excessive financial risk behaviors and complacency, investors' risk appetite, and high leverage tools and the acceptance of high-risk products has increased, arbitrage transactions have prevailed, liquidity mismatches have been severe, and the overall market is fragile. As the results we can see that, the price of BTC is increasingly correlated with the VIX index (Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index). A lower VIX index indicates that investors expect less volatility, while a higher VIX indicates higher expected volatility. The lower VIX index indicates that investors are optimistic about S&P 500, while the higher VIX means that investors are uncertain about the market outlook. When market volatility declines, investors buy stocks and other types of risk assets, when the market volatility rises, investors sell risky assets.
Risk assets will be dumped when risk appetite reduces panic market. BTC bid farewell to the nature of safe-haven assets and become a risky asset. Since December 2017, with the decline of the VIX index, the price of BTC rises, and the price of BTC is negatively correlated with the VIX index. At the beginning of 2018, the VIX index skyrocketed and BTC fell rapidly. In October 2018, the global market risk aversion trend increased, the VIX index went up, and the BTC price also fell sharply.

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Crowdsale has become the main financing method in the blockchain field. Crowdsale was born in the second round of the price cycle, Mastercoin did the world's first Crowdsale in July 2013. In 2014, Ethereum also raised funds through Crowdsale, when the price of ETH was less than 0.22 USD per piece. After 2016, when it is in the third price cycle, Crowdsale is popular around the world, and many websites began to provide information and discussion communities for Crowdsale. From a global perspective, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment since 2017, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. In 2017, Crowdsale raised 7.4 billion US dollars, and in the first half of 2018, Crowdsale Raised 12 billion US dollars.
The Crypto Fund emerged. Along with the Crowdsale boom, a large number of Crypto Funds were created. The number of Crypto Funds newly established in 2017 was nearly 200, far exceeding the total amount of the Crypto funds created in previous years, which fully demonstrated that, with the rise in the price of the token, the enthusiasm of funds to blockchain field is high.

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The rise of blockchain 2.0, the Crowdsale tide pushed ETH up nearly 10,000 times. In the third round of the BTC (Token) price cycle, the biggest star is not BTC, but ETH. Crowdsale after 2016, issued tokens mainly through Ethereum, which represented the rise of ETH in the blockchain 2.0 era. Crowdsale prosperity boosted the rise of ETH. On January 13, 2018, the price of ETH rose to a peak of 1,432.88 US dollars per piece, which is 6512 times rise rate comparing to its initial price.
The ETH price has a significant positive correlation with the growth rate of Crowdsale financing. The growth rate of Crowdsale financing decreased by 69.23% in 2015, the price of ETH decreased by 66.30% in the same year. In 2016, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 2737.5%, and ETH increased by 753.74%. In 2017, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 3,159.91%, and ETH rose by 8809.91%.

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Plan for public blockchain performance improvement emerged, and significant progress were made in lightning network. With the popularization of blockchains, the congestion of BTC and other public chains has gradually emerged, and performance has become one of the bottlenecks in the blockchain industry. In 2018, the performance-improvement plan of the public blockchain emerged. Improvements were made to the difference in blockchain logical architecture, including on-chain capacity expansion schemes by improving consensus mechanism and sharing, and off-chain capacity expansion schemes by status channel, sidechain, off-chain computing, and Layer 0 expansion scheme that enhance the scalability of the blockchain by optimizing the underlying data transmission protocol of the blockchain. Since the main net of BTC lightning network goes live, the number and capacity of channels have been increasing. As of March 10, 2019, the capacity has reached 790 BTC, and the number of channels has reached 35,464.

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Note: The Unique channel refers to the channel that is directly connected to the node for the first time, and the Duplicate channel refers to the channel between the nodes that have been connected.
The standardization of the token is promoted. On January 22, 2018, South Korea required all BTC dealers to disclose their identity, thereby prohibiting anonymous trading of BTC. During the first quarter of 2018, Facebook, Google and Twitter prohibited the promotion of Crowdsale, while the US Securities and Exchange Commission investigated a large number of Crowdsale projects, and issued bans to some Crowdsale projects. Regardless of the government's attitude towards the token, it is committed to incorporating the token into the regulatory framework for legal compliance.
The Crowdsale bubble bursted and the magical story is no longer magical. According to incomplete statistics, in 2017, 871 Crowdsale were completed in the world. These projects involved directions as distributed analogous Facebook, twitter, amazon, and next-generation public chain (blockchain 3.0), etc. These projects have raised a large amount of funds, but the actual operating is worrying. The promotion of the project dissipated a large amount of funds, but the actual development progress was far less than expected, resulting in the market's expectation failure and the diversion of funds from the mainstream token. Superimposed the impact of more and more negative news, technical adjustment requirements and market sentiment fluctuation. The market enters a negative cycle, as the decline begins.

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In 2018, there has been rapid growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector, indicating that venture capital still have good expectations about the application and future prospects of the blockchain. According to Coindesk data, the risk investment in the blockchain sector in 2018 reverse the decline of 2017, year-on-year increase of 257%, and the total amount for the year 2018 reached 3.1 billion US dollars.

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BTC peaked first. In terms of time, in the third round of the price cycle, the first to peak is BTC, which reached 19,870.62 USD per piece in December 2017. The peak of ETH happened later than BTC, in January 2018. EOS did not peak until April. The important reason for BTC to peak first is that the amount of funds needed to support the BTC market value scale is the largest. When the market’s ability to carry on is not enough, it is inevitable for the price of BTC to react first.
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
The price cycle of BTC has obvious regularity, and some unchanging factors determine the price fluctuation of BTC.
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
One full BTC price cycle lasts approximately four years. In the first round of price cycles, the measure of time span is not reliable because of the availability of BTC trading prices. The second round of the price cycle lasted for 1,377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, about four years.
The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period, and the price-rising cycle starts one year before each halving. At the end of November 2012, the first production of BTC was halved, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 25, and in November 2011, the price of BTC has bottomed out, and the halving of BTC is one year after the second price-rising cycle. In July 2016, production of BTC was halved the second time, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 12.5. In August 2015, BTC had already bottomed out, and BTC's production was reduced again one year after the third price-rising cycle started.

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BTC output halving blows the horn of each price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begin. Although it is not BTC output halving that brings the price-rising cycle, but the halving of BTC output significantly reduced the growth rate of BTC supply, speeding up the rise of BTC price and the price-rising cycle. From November 2011 to November 2012, before the halving of BTC output, BTC increased by 6.74 times in one year. From November 2012 to November 2013, BTC price increased by 99.57 times. In the third price-rising cycle, BTC price rose by a maximum of 2.87 times in about 11 months before the production cut. After halving, BTC price rose by a maximum of 29.73 times in about 11 months.

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4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
The change in the market value scale of BTC (circulation) is mainly caused by its price fluctuations, and has little to do with the changes in the total amount of BTC output. According to CMC data, by April 28, 2013, the total amount of BTC that had been mined was about 11.18 million pieces, which is more than 53% of the total amount of BTC of 21 million pieces. The halving mechanism of BTC also accelerated the marginal decline of BTC total growth rate. Compared with the amount of BTC already mined, the new supply of BTC is very insignificant. In addition, the volatility of BTC prices far exceeds the volatility of BTC's total output, and the market value of BTC fluctuates with its price.
The market value of BTC has increased in trend. Because of the trend of BTC price-rising, the number of BTC total output has also increased in one direction, and the market value of BTC has increased in the long run. According to CMC data, on April 28, 2013, BTC's market value in circulation was only 1.5 billion US dollars. By the peak of the third price-rising cycle, the market value increased to 326.1 billion US dollars, and the current market value also reached 113.8 billion US dollars, increased by 74.87 times.
The price volatility of BTC is gradually getting smaller. With the increasing of BTC market value in trend, the BTC market is becoming more and more mature, more and more accepted by the public, more and more professional organizations are participating, the compliance operation is becoming mainstream, and the BTC price volatility is decreasing. Similar to the historical process of other asset classes, and the same thing is repeated again and again. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and the fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed

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4.3 BTC-led innovation continues to evolve and is more and more recognized by the mainstream
From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment.
The original intention of Nakamoto to create BTC is to establish a more efficient means of trading that can be electronically transferred in a safe, verifiable and non-tamperable form. During the early days of bitcoin and blockchain development, this drove the development of most applications of BTC and blockchain. However, with the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital token, the recognition of practitioners, and the evolution of government regulation, the changes led by BTC continue to evolve and gain more mainstream recognition.
More and more countries recognize that the blockchain reflects its unique value in many fields. The government has gradually incorporated digital token into regulation, and mainstream institutions are increasingly recognizing BTC. In 2017, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, as BTC took an important step toward mainstream investment, improving the accessibility of BTC to traditional financial institutions. In March 2017, Cameron's Cliveworth and Taylor W. Crawworth brothers attempted to submit an application to the US Securities and Exchange Commission for BTC ETF (transactional open-ended index fund). Although on September 22, 2018, US Securities and Exchange Commission rejected nine BTC ETF applications, the approval of BTC ETF application is a high probability event in the long run. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since the end of 2018, news about the organization of encrypted assets by mainstream institutions has continued.

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5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will start in May 2019, and mainstream institutions will enter the market, while ETF may become the core trend of the fourth round of BTC price cycle.
From the perspective of supply, the third halving of BTC begins around May 21, 2020. The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period. The price-rising cycle starts about one year before halving. From this perspective, the BTC price-rising cycle may be opened around May 2019.

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From the time dimension, the complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The third round of the price cycle, which started in August 2015, will be completed around August 2019, and the fourth round of the price cycle of BTC will begin thereafter. Considering that the data in the second round of the price cycle is more reliable, only the second round of price cycle data is used as the measurement standard, the complete price cycle is 1377 days, about 3 years and 9 months, and the third round price cycle may end around May 2019.
Combined with the previous two BTC price cycles, the downturn phase of the current price cycle has been probably more than half, and further downside space is limited. In the first two rounds of the price cycle, the duration of the downlink phase is less than the duration of the uplink phase. The duration of the third phase of the price cycle has been confirmed (845 days), while the duration of the downturn phase has been more than half of the upstream phase (450 days). From the first two rounds of the price cycle, the rapid decline in prices occurred in the early stage of the downtrend phase. The price fluctuations of BTC in the second half of the downturn phase have been significantly reduced. The BTC price declines reached 61% in the first half and 74% in the second round of the price cycle, and the corresponding maximum declines in BTC were 94% and 84% respectively. In the current round of the price cycle, the biggest drop has reached 84%, so take it from now, even if the price is further down, the downside space is already limited.
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Note: The data of the third round of the price cycle and the total duration are up to March 12, 2019.
From the price dimension, the downside space of the current round of BTC prices is limited, and the maximum increase of BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will become smaller. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed. On February 6, 2018, BTC fell to a minimum of 3,191.30 US dollars per piece, drop by 84.07%, has reached the low of second round of price cycle, from the perspective of price adjustment, BTC price downside has been more limited. The maximum increase in the fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will be smaller.
From the perspective of risk, after a year of continuous adjustment, BTC prices have fully fallen, risks have been gradually released, and investor’s risk appetite has risen to create favorable conditions for BTC prices to stabilize. Beginning at the end of December 2018, the VIX index has fallen, and now it has reached 15 or below. The investor's risk appetite has gradually picked up, creating favorable conditions for the BTC price to rise stably.
Last but not least, from the perspective of capital, the mainstream institutions accelerated their entry and many positive signals were released. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since 2018, on the one hand, the entry of mainstream institutions can bring incremental funds to the entire market, on the other hand, it also contributes to the formal development of the entire industry.
The value of the BTC's market value in circulation continues to increase, and the digital token embraces regulation. It is expected that the ETF will be the core trend in the fourth price cycle. As the value of the BTC and digital token market increases, their use will be more tied-up to legitimate use than illegal activities. According to the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) data, only 10% of the current BTC transactions is related to illegal activities and 90% is used for legal transactions. BTC's increasingly large market value requires more financial support. Digital token will embrace supervision to absorb more funds, and ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, there is going to be an evolution from Crowdsale to ETF, from regulation to embrace supervision.
Note:
Although in this report, we try to predict the bottom and time of Token, especially BTC, by using time and space cycle, we would like to tell investors that it is very dangerous to invest basing on a specific dot and time. An investment shall base on the assessment of the value of the token.
Here are our suggestions: 1. Do not try to predict the market. Mistakes are liable to happen when you try to predict market harshly. 2. Feel the cycle. Cycle is always there, because of the constant human nature;3. Be with a good Token, which will bring you more chance to win. 4.Keep valuation in mind. The most important thing in value investing is to keep the valuation in mind. If the price is reasonable, everything is getable. The key is the difference between price and value (Absolute valuation method is not available with Token because of its specialty. However, a relative valuation method can be applied. Please refer to Token Toll’s report series).
Notions:
For some reasons, some definition in this report are not very defined, such as: Token, Digital Token, Digital Currency, Currency, Crowdsale, etc.
If you have any questions, be free to call us to discuss with us.

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submitted by Token_Roll to u/Token_Roll [link] [comments]

Why so much speculation

Short answer
If people are incapable of estimating the correct number logically, the only method to the answer is by genetic algorithm where cloud wisdom hopefuly takes time to solve and volatility is inevitable.
Long answer
Believe it or not, the valuation of a currency-purpose asset is in fact much easier than the valuation of a stock. To be a currency-purpose asset, a somewhat universal valuation opinion must be among the mass. For a stock, on the contrary, one needs to evaluate many factors such as marketing/product/… and people have different opinions about the possible gain of a stock.
Every asset has a production cost, the piece of paper of stock certificate has little production cost. For currency-purpose asset, the production cost is thought to be independent of W-questions such as "who produces this asset", "where is this asset produced", "how many sale a producer has done", …etc. It is this property that the so-called universal opinion is formed. Money is also supposed not to have capital gain like stocks such as "I will have a generous dividend next year", so there is indeed not a "calculate the present value of all future gain by having a stock" but a "global understanding of the cost to fake/rollback/cheat a trust" for currency-purpose asset.
Let
Story 1 Assume all miners calculate the production cost in the coming 8 years and users are not investors. Let's express price in real term so that weird fiat monetary policy has nothing to do with the following argument we shall focus on.
The equation for cost of the production is 0 = KI + sum(KT - ( F+C(t, t+2)) * P, from t to t+2)
Therefore P = K * (T + I/210000 * 2 )/(F + C(2.41, 4.41)). Note that C(2.41, 4.41)=7.4515 so the miner will sell at least at this price. A user, as a non-investor who never cares P, may buy the coin from the miner and sell the coin for a merchant service/goods who will adjust the service bitcoin-nominated price with P accordingly. For your curiosity, by current data, the P by Story 1 is 3.49444E+11 Joule.
Is the Story 1 reallistic ? Not at all.
What about a miner who is thinking to run the business till t1=3 only. Then C(2.41, 3)=12.5 and this miner can undercut other miners in Story 1. Every users, as non-investors, do not care any bit about P because the user will always need to commit the same real-term service price from the merchant. Being undercut means death, so all the miners will split the pricing logic so that two P numbers, one for time 2.41 to 3, the other for 3 to 4.41; for your curiosity, C(3, 4.41) = 5.3413
Story 2 As the miners competition settled down, the P is not constant any more; there will be two P numbers, one, being lower, for time 2.41 to 3, the other, being higher, for 3 to 4.41.
Is the Story 2 reallistic ? Not at all.
What about a user who starts noticing that the P will increase and being investors is a good deal. While this user may observe the increasing of P empirically but never logically understanding, knowing nothing about math and miners' plan, this user will speculate between market price of P; he might buy at 5000 and see it explode at 10000 and take profit at 6000 (in USD term) and has no idea the 5000 may be much lower than the correct number. Should the P is pricing at the correct number so that there is no room between the two P, speculators are gone and people are comfortable the stable price with store-of-value and media-of-exchange.
Is the Story 2 realistic ? Not at all.
What about a hobby miner wants to be investor too and starts mining from time 2.41 to 3 and never sell all the coins for users but only pay partially little for the electricity while price bullish and keep the rest coins as investment for himself after time 3 ?
Story 3 Being also speculation. While other users investors may increase the volatility (mainly because being without fundamental knowledge but rather TA or market-sentiment orientated traders), this move will shrink the room between the two P and therefore decrease the volatility of P. So the ratio of time 2.41-to-3 miners to time 2.41-to-4.41 miners increases up to the two P are equal then no more new miners of such plan.
Is the Story 3 realistic ? Not at all.
What about there are miners/investors for all possible time frame t0 to t1 in the future ?
Let
Story 4 Therefore, the only setting where no arbitrage for miners and investors is such that P=KT/F and the graph of (Kt + K ) / K is like this.
We know T and F and the ratio of Kt/K, but what is exactly K ?
No one really knows. K could be low or high, one can only guess by observation. We know the difficulty is proportional to hash rate and hash rate is proportional to Kt and K. So you can see the graph of difficulty to have a guess of K. Should the two graph looks similar, we know people are finally logical and feel delight. By the difficulty graph and miners' time frame to amortize fixed cost so that it can be averaged out, taking the current global hash as K and updating it as time goes by may be a good guess. For your curiosity, currently KT/F is 2.13007E+12 Joule.
BUT. It is not logical to assume people are all logical. If people are never logical and never investors, a graph of KT/( F + C(t, t+1) ) which is increasing till KT/F shall resemble the graph of P. If some people are logical and some are not, the empirical graph will be hysterical around and between.
I tend not to comment about pricing in public. But since I know wall street and I know what wall street knows, feeling sad about the mass, bear me. I thought these information could leak to the mass if there were future contracts after each halving date, but no luck for such contracts.
Credit: not me. I knew this long after someone knew it.
submitted by LucSr to BitcoinDiscussion [link] [comments]

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